Existing-home sales increased by 1.5% month-over-month in September, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. “As anticipated, falling mortgage rates are lifting home sales,” said NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun. “Improving housing affordability is also contributing to the increase in sales.” Mortgage rates have fallen to the lowest level in a year, below 6.2%.

President Trump cancels trade talks with Canada. The US has imposed a 35% levy on many Canadian imports, along with individual tariffs targeting particular industries like car and steel manufacturing.

Target is cutting 1,800 jobs, its first major layoffs in a decade. The job cuts represent an approximately 8% reduction in Target’s corporate workforce.

Artificial intelligence-related investment spending has “kept the economy out of a recession,” says BNP Paribas chief US economist James Egelhof, but…

The ongoing US government shutdown will become a headwind for the economy if it rolls on, economists advise. “A government shutdown would be an additional headwind that could further weaken the underlying foundation of the US economy,” says Gregory Daco, chief economist at accounting firm EY. If the shutdown continues into the holiday shopping season that starts after Thanksgiving, “a recession will become a real threat as it will weigh on already fragile consumer, business and investor confidence,” predicts Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.

TMC Research’s Fed funds model continues to indicate that monetary policy remains moderately tight. The effective Fed funds rate has been holding steady recently at roughly one percentage point above the neutral estimate. The gap leaves room for the Fed to cut its target rate at next week’s policy meeting while still leaving policy with a hawkish bias.

More By This Author: