Macro Briefing - Thursday, Oct. 23

Business inflation expectations were steady in October, reports the Atlanta Fed. Year-ahead inflation expectations at firms surveyed by the regional Fed bank remained relatively unchanged at 2.3%, on average.

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The Federal Reserve has reportedly been “cut off” from data for the ADP Employment Report, a private source of hiring and firing at US companies. The Prospect reports: “ADP appears to have cut off the delivery of timely data encompassing 20 percent of all payrolls, which Fed governor Christopher Waller disclosed in an August speech.”

US said it will impose new sanctions targeting Russia’s two largest oil firms. The announcement came one day after President Trump said a planned meeting Vladimir Putin in Budapest would be shelved indefinitely.

The US government’s gross national debt rose above $38 trillion, a new record. The rise $1 trillion rise since August marks the fastest increse other than during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Tesla profits fell 37% in Q3 vs. the year-ago period after the company cut prices on its cars. Revenues rose 12%, but that was dwarfed by operating expenses, which surged 50%.

US 10-year Treasury yield falls for a third day, slipping to 3.95%. Reuters reports: “The slide in Treasury yields in the face of record-high stock prices, tight credit spreads, and sticky inflation suggests investors have accepted Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s steer that policy is being driven by employment, not inflation.”

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The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. The author wrote this article themselves, and it expresses their own opinions. ...

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