For another week, initial jobless claims continued their reversal from an almost relentless uptrend from spring through early August.

This week initial claims rose -5,000 to 213,000 from a revised 3-month low of 208,000, while the 4-week average declined another -6,000 to a new 3-month low of 216,750. Continuing claims, which lag somewhat, declined from 22,000 to 1,379,000:

(Click on image to enlarge)

I have expected continuing claims, which lag slightly, to reverse lower, and they have, from a revised high of 1,437,000 on August 20.

Once again, this is almost certainly a positive side-effect of lower gas prices.

That being said, the long-term outlook for next year remains negative; and has only worsened in the last several months, and was not helped at all by yesterday’s Fed rate hike.

More By This Author: