(Almost) Nobody Is Getting Laid Off - Still

Let’s take our regular weekly look at jobless claims, a very good short-term leading indicator. To cut to the chase, nobody is getting laid off - still.

Initial claims rose 2,000 to 206,000, while the four-week moving average rose 1,500 to 207,250. Both of these remain very low numbers on a historical basis. With the usual one-week delay, continuing claims rose 8,000 to 1.779 million, typical for the post-pandemic era:

On the YoY% basis, more important for forecasting, initial claims were down -12.7%, the four-week average down -10.1%, and continuing claims down -8.2%:

These are very positive numbers, consistent with a good economic expansion.

Finally, let’s take our last look at what this suggests about the unemployment rate over the next few months:

All of the pressure is to the downside, i.e., the unemployment rate declining towards 4.0% or even lower. We’ll find out if that was the case in August tomorrow.