Jobless Claims: More Of The Same Old, Same Old

The story continues to be “same old, same old” with unemployment claims.

Initial claims declined -2,000 last week to 227,000. The four week moving average rose 1,000 to 231,500. With the typical one week delay, continuing claims rose 36,000 to 1.903 million:

The YoY story continues to be the same as well. YoY initial claims were up 3.2%, the four week average up 5.7%, and continuing claims up 6.1%:

So the forecast for the immediate future remains the same too: continued expansion, if somewhat weak.

Finally, let’s update what this likely means for the trend in the unemployment rate in the next few months (red, right scale):

There is no significant upward pressure on the unemployment rate, suggesting continued readings in the 4.1%-4.2% range, tariff-palooza! pemitting.


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