Now that we are well past the Holidays, seasonality has settled down and so have the comparisons for jobless claims.

Initial claims declined -7,000 to 213,000 last week, and the four week average declined -1,000 to 216,000. With the usual one week delay, continued claims declined -36,000 to 1.850 million:

On the more important YoY basis for forecasting purposes, initial claims were higher by a mere 0.9%, and for the first time in five months the four week average was *lower,* by -0.7%. Continuing claims were higher by 2.6%, about their average for the past year:

It’s too early in the month to talk about what this might mean for next month’s jobs report, but initial claims, along with the YoY% change in the S&P 500, constitute my “quick and dirty” forecasting model. Basically, if claims are higher YoY, and the stock market is lower, the economy is almost always in trouble. Here’s the update:

With jobless claims essentially unchanged from one year ago, and the stock market higher by about 20%, the verdict is: more of “steady as she goes.”

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