The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time remains at year-to-date lows at 207k last week (basically in line with the 205k the prior week). Un-adjusted initial claims declined to 172k, the lowest since Oct 2022...

Source: Bloomberg

Ohio claims fell once again, back to a more normalized level as their massive fraud has now been 'fixed'...

Source: Bloomberg

Continuing claims remain well below the Maginot Line of 1.7mm Americans. (sliding to 1.664mm last week), also at year-to-date lows...

Source: Bloomberg

With regard to continuing claims, Goldman reminds us that ongoing seasonal distortions have increasingly weighed on the level of continuing claims over the last six months, and we now expect that the reversal of those distortions could exert a cumulative boost of 375k to the level of continuing claims between the end of September and March.

Finally, one does have to wonder just what world we are living in when ADP (and BLS) jobs data has been trending weaker over the last few months, and yet initial jobless claims have been trending not just stronger, but towards its strongest on record...

Source: Bloomberg

Which pill do you want to swallow?

"This is your last chance. After this, there is no turning back. You take the blue pill - the story ends, and you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill - you stay in Wonderland and I show you how deep the rabbit hole goes."

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