This week initial jobless claims declined -6,000 to 219,000. The four week moving average declined -1,250 to 223,000. With the typical one week delay, continuing claims rose 56,000 to 1.903 million, the highest number since 2021:

Since last year this week there was something of an outlier to the upside, by comparison YoY claims were down by -1.8%. The four week moving average remained higher by 3.4%, and continuing claims were also higher by 6.4%:

As I normally state, it is the YoY% comparison which is more important for forecasting purposes, and these number continue to indicate expansion, albeit at a slow pace.

It is important to note that if the Administration’s total disruption of the economy is going to have a major effect, we should start to see it in new jobless claims very soon. But so far, pretty much nada.

Finally, let’s take our final look at what this bodes for the unemployment rate. Here’s the YoY% view, with claims averaged monthly:

Here’s the look in absolute numbers:

With claims hovering at the 4-5% range in the past few months, this forecasts the unemployment rate tending towards 4.0% (i.e., 3.8%*1.045).

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