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Hopefully for the last time . . . As I have done since the beginning of the government shutdown, the unadjusted number of initial and continuing claims can be calculated based on reporting by the States, plus DC, and Puerto Rico. Then, by applying the same adjustment as was used for the same week last year, the seasonally adjusted number can also be estimated closely as well. This post covers initial claims for the week ending November 8, and continuing claims ending November 1.

Since my forecasting method relies on the YoY% changes, it is almost never affected by that seasonality.  So tabulated, for the week ending November 8, unadjusted initial claims totaled 237,712 vs. 230,810 in 2024, an increase of 3.0%.  

Last year this week, the seasonal multiplier was *0.94853. Applying it gives us an estimated seasonally adjusted number of 226,000.

We can similarly calculate the four-week moving average, since the last four weeks of claims were 230,000, 220,000, and 225,000, as well as this week’s 226,000. That gives us an average of 225,250, which is 3,750, or 1.7% higher than the 221,500 of one year ago.

Using the same methodology, unadjusted continuing claims for the week ending November 1 totaled 1,715,989 vs. 1,647,230 last year, an increase of 4.2%.

The seasonal adjustment for the applicable week last year was *1.13645. Applying it gives us an estimate of 1.950 million continuing claims, or -4,000 lower than one week ago. Still, continuing claims throughout the government shutdown have all been close to their highest levels since 2021, which was 1.968 million this past July. 

Aside from the 2024 hurricane-related distortions during October, this continues the general neutral trend that was in place before the shutdown, i.e., higher than one year ago but much less than 10% higher, forecasting a weakly expanding economy for the next several months.

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