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The crypto community has largely replaced the old gold bug community. 

Every downtick gets blamed on manipulation. Every rally becomes proof of superior investing skill.

We've had strong success trading crypto this year. 

Based on what I'm seeing now, we're at the most critical moment since April.

This asset class faces a do-or-die situation. 

Here are the two scenarios I see playing out right now.

Fake Out or Break Down

Bitcoin is holding onto critical support in the 103,000-107,000 range. The big picture shows sideways movement since mid-summer. During this period, it has built another beautiful pattern called a wedge.

I've seen this pattern play out countless times in Bitcoin specifically. The pattern doesn't actually confirm until you break to a new high.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Where does this leave us now?

Bulls need to defend the 103,000-107,000 range. A failure here opens the door to a wipeout down to 85,000-90,000. I'm still long crypto, but I will stop out if we break support. At that point, I'd plan to buy back on a drop to that range.

What if this low holds?

Sentiment has turned sour in crypto. Numerous leveraged traders blew up after a single day selloff a few weeks back. People are saying it's all over now.

This capitulation matters. When the crowd gives up and declares the trade dead, bottoms often form in the wreckage. 

My model shows a setup for a low here. The technical structure supports this view. We need price confirmation to validate the setup.

That confirmation comes if Bitcoin takes out the high from October 27. A break above that level signals the wedge pattern is resolving to the upside. 

We just had the rolling of the futures contract. I've seen this technical event lead to prices resuming their underlying trend.

The broader market context matters too. Crypto needs to start participating in this rally in stocks. When speculative assets like Bitcoin lag while stocks push higher, it signals weakness in risk appetite. 

Stocks can rally without crypto. History shows they rally harder and more sustainably when crypto joins the party. Strong crypto participation confirms that speculative money is flowing freely through the system.

Watch this carefully. This could be the big opportunity going into year-end. I'll keep you posted.

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