Bear Market Thoughts

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The S&P 500 is now in official bear market territory.

This is hard on stock investors, even veterans, even ones like us who follow a systematic program. If you’re feeling queasy, you’re not alone.

Sometimes it helps to go through common worries that fellow investors report, to see for yourself that you’re not alone. The following are thoughts I recently received from subscribers:

  • I knew this was coming. I just knew it. Why didn’t I get out in January?
  • I can’t believe I did this to my family. What will become of them now that we’ve lost so much?
  • What if the market fails to recover before it’s time for my financial goal? I need to send somebody to college, or build a home, or retire, etc.
  • We should hedge. If only we’d bought a -2x fund in January instead of continuing these plans.
  • The quarterly price signals are obviously inaccurate. The signals should be generated by moving averages, or sentiment, or something else.

Some of this might ring familiar.

You know how I know? Because I’ve been at this a long time, in public, and I receive people’s thoughts through all market phases. Everything you read above I received in similar form in past down cycles. In every recovery that followed, I received frustration from people who failed to buy or hold during the bargain phase. As with market levels, emotions follow a cycle.

If you’re feeling bad about the bear market, you’re normal. If your mind tricks you into thinking you knew this one was coming, you’re normal. If you’re rational enough to overcome your gut feelings and stick with what’s proven, you’re unusual. I’m betting on the latter.

Courage is not the absence of fear, it’s doing what needs to be done despite the crushing sensation of fear.

You can learn more about the way I use leveraged ETFs in The Kelly Letter at jasonkelly.com

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Andrew Armstrong 1 year ago Member's comment

Your thoughts on the market are spot on.

Jason Kelly 1 year ago Contributor's comment

Thank you, Andrew!