Instantaneous PCE Core Inflation At 2.6%
Compare to 2.8% y/y, 2.7% q/q AR.
Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation (T=12,a=4) for core CPI (blue), core PCE deflator (brown), supercore CPI (green), all in decimal form %. Calculations per Eeckhout (2023).Source: BLS, BEA, and author’s calculations.
So y/y core PCE inflation is 0.2 percentage points above target rate of 2%, while instantaneous is 0.6 percentage points. Cleveland Fed nowcast of today indicates 2.9% instantaneous inflation rate for October.
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