I’ll put up an analysis of this morning’s CPI later. In the meantime, initial jobless claims rose 21,000 last week to 248,000. The more important 4-week moving average rose 2,750 to 231,000. With a one-week delay, continuing claims declined by -8,000 to 1.684 million:

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On an absolute level, all of this remains very good.

The YoY% changes are more important for forecasting purposes. There, for the week initial claims are up 15.9% YoY. However, the 4-week moving average is only up 7.9% - far too low an increase to be consistent with any imminent recession. Continuing claims remain very elevated YoY, up 24.6%:

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Remember, because YoY claims did not cross the 12.5% threshold for 2 full months, we reset the clock. While claims suggest a slight increase in the unemployment rate on the order of 0.2%-0.3% in the next few months, that is not nearly enough to trigger the Sahm Rule.

In short, a little softness, but no recession signaled.

More By This Author:

What To Look For In Tomorrow’s CPI And Friday’s PPI
Scenes From The July Employment Report
July Jobs Report: Almost Across The Board Deterioration In Leading Sectors