Initial jobless claims last week rose from 11,000 to 239,000. The more important 4-week average rose from 2,250 to 240,000. Continuing claims, with a one-week delay, decreased from 13,000 to 1,823,000:

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At this juncture, the YoY change is more important, because increases of more than 10%, especially in the 4-week average, or monthly, are a yellow caution flag for recession, and an increase of more than 12.5% which persists for at least 2 months is a red flag recession warning. 

And on a YoY basis, while the one-week number is only up 7.7%, for the month of March (blue)they were up 11.0%. For the first 2 weeks of April (not shown) they are up 8.3% YoY so far. The 4-week average is up 11.1%. Continuing claims, which lag, are up 13.8%%:

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Because of the 4-week average and the monthly YoY increase for March, a yellow caution flag remains warranted. It will take further increases into the 240s that persist into May for the data to warrant a red flag recession warning.

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