Initial jobless claims continued their recent excellent reports, as there were only 192,000 new claims, down -3,000 from the week before, and close to their 50+ year lows of last March and April. The 4-week average increased from 1,500 to 191,250, still an incredible number. Continuing claims, with a one-week delay, declined from -37,000 to 1,654,000, still in their slightly elevated range that started in November:

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On a YoY basis, continuing claims were slightly higher, while initial claims were slightly lower:

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Remember, I do not believe there is any recession signal until initial claims on a 4-week moving average basis are at least 10% higher YoY.

The almost complete lack of layoffs remains one of the two biggest signals (along with near-record housing units under construction) contra any near-term recession.

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