Initial unemployment claims rose another 262,000 for the week ending June 10, 2023. Let's look at the trends.

unemployment claims data from the Department of Labor, chart by Mish

Initial claims bottomed at 182,000 on September 24, 2022.

Ignoring the pandemic years and recovery, initial claims are the highest since 264,000 on September 23, 2017.

Continued claims bottomed at 1,289,000 on September 10, 2022.

These numbers are low historically, but the labor market is weakening.

Initial and Continued Claims Recession Lead Times 

On a monthly average basis, through May, initial and continued claims bottomed 8 months ago.

I am sticking with my call of a less than normal rise in the unemployment rate this recession. 

MishTalk Video With Adam Taggart

For more discussion of the global economic trends, please see Challenges for the Economy Ahead - MishTalk Video With Adam Taggart.

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