Inflation Nowcasts And Expectations

Board, Blackboard, Economy, Inflation, Money

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NY Fed median expected y/y CPI inflation at 3%. Nowcast for core y/y at 3.9%.

Figure 1: Instantaneous CPI inflation (bold black), y/y core CPI (blue), Bloomberg consensus (green square), median expected CPI y/y CPI inflation from NY Fed (red). December observations for CPI, core CPI 1/8/2024 Cleveland Fed nowcasts. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Instantaneous inflation per Eeckhout (2023), T=12, a=4.  Source: BLS, NY Fed, Cleveland Fed, Bloomberg, NBER, and author’s calculation.


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Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy any investment products. None of the ...

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