Inflation! Inflation!! Inflation!!!
I want to balance out all of the deflationary hysteria and Treasury bond market (risk off) bullishness out there. Yeah, yeah, BREXIT this, NIRP that, Payrolls the other thing…
If you look down the page you will see a lot of inflation talk. Guess what, you are going to see more of it this summer.
More big time information is coming to light as I do the work in NFTRH 400 (can you believe it? 400 of these things?) and it is not indicating anything like deflation. Nor is it indicating that we should be wetting our pants like the big brains at the Fed fretting about the May jobs report.
What’s more, the report does not mention CPI even once. There are plenty of other signals that far fewer people watch, which are indicating a whopper of a cost-push issue coming up. But here is boring old CPI nonetheless.
I really cannot believe the Fed can be so dim as to be obsessed on backward looking information like Payrolls and the recent decline in inflation expectations. But if this works the way I see it now, the opportunity is going to be pretty immense. Sure that’s hyperbole, but I am tired of being the sober, dour guy all the time. One day all the wise guys are going to be touting inflation all the way up to the limiter. Wash, rinse, repeat.
Anyway, I just finished for today and can’t wait to clean this thing up and get it to subscribers tomorrow.
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Inflation has been raging for a while. The only issue is the gage of inflation conveniently hides the wellspring of it which is the housing and rental costs. Thus they think its good for housing to eat all the disposable income because banks assets go up and some people get richer. The unintended consequence is disposable income drops and people get mad.
If it gets as bad as Japan, the US will not be as kind as the Japanese people who had to live through decades of a dead economy and now many live in cramped living conditions due to absurd housing prices. Both parties need to do something about this before it gets bad. The problem is the issue is more the federal Reserve's maligned policy than the politicians and only Bernie Sanders has realized it. Sadly, although he identifies the Federal Reserve as the culprit, his solutions are more of the same. We need a fiscal conservative and free market person in power, however, the simple fact is weaning us off of the programmed economy track we are on will be painful in the short run.
That's economics and the free market. It is not bad. It is what it is. One can't reap the rewards of capitalism without the whole business cycle.