House Price Indexes Decline, Unchanged In October; Further Evidence Of Real Declines Since Summer
The Case Shiller national house price index declined another -0.3% in November, and is now up 9.2% YoY, compared with a peak of +20.8% YoY in March (note that is in line with my rule of thumb that a decline of 1/2 or more in YoY growth over the past 12 months indicates a series has peaked and rolled over).
(Click on image to enlarge)
The FHFA purchase-only house price index was unchanged for the month, and is up 9.7% YoY (vs. its peak of +19.7% in February, so also is in decline per my rule of thumb):
(Click on image to enlarge)
Here’s an update of the FHFA house price index YoY (/2 for scale) vs. Owners’ Equivalent Rent in the CPI:
(Click on image to enlarge)
Because OER follows house prices with roughly a 12-month lag, I expect OER to continue to increase YoY for a few more months before declining steeply probably beginning next spring. Note also that the most recent FHFA and Case Shiller report is for October, so this month’s YoY change is probably closer to about 6%.
More By This Author:
New Home Sales For November: At Last, A Bright Spot (Relatively Speaking)Real Personal Income And Spending Hold Up (Thank You, Lower Gas Prices!) But Still Consistent With Onset Of Recession
Durable Goods Orders Appear To Have Peaked
Disclaimer: This blog contains opinions and observations. It is not professional advice in any way, shape or form and should not be construed that way. In other words, buyer beware.
Comments
