(Click on image to enlarge)

Regular readers will know I have a soft spot for Harley Davidson and is one of my favorite stocks for many reasons and it’s one we last visited on the 15th of February this year. At the time the stock was trading at $36.36 per share and testing a strong level of resistance in the $40 per share level, and as I explained at the time, once this level was breached then we could expect to see further strong gains for this stock, which has indeed been the case with the price closing at $51.96 yesterday.

If we revisit the key level just above the $40 per share price, this resistance is defined by the red dashed line of the accumulation and distribution indicator which thickens according to the number of times it is tested. As can be seen from November through to March this level was tested repeatedly, each attempt adding further strength and so once breached becomes an excellent platform of support. Note also the strong buying which developed in February on good volume and with a deep wick to the lower body of the candle as the market makers moved in to buy on the reversal lower, an event repeated in March on lower volume as any selling pressure was absorbed. April marked the propulsion higher on excellent volume, and with May developing a lower wick and moving higher, there is plenty more to come for this stock. However, a couple of cautionary notes.

First, we have the VPOC (volume point of control), the yellow dashed line which is at $45.50 per share a level which was tested in May with the low of the month, and second, a minor resistance level denoted with the red dashed line at $52 per share immediately ahead. In summary, given these two factors, I expect to see some congestion build in the short term, but in the longer term, there is no reason to suppose HOG should not retest the $62.50 per share price of mid-2017.