Photo by Steve Johnson on Unsplash

How should you invest if you believe that artificial intelligence will trigger the collapse of human civilization? Some people have that fear. The optimists challenge the pessimists by asking if they are short the stock market. Tyler Cowen related a conversation in which the pessimists explained, “There is no way to short the apocalypse.”

People often, however, take active steps in anticipation of death, seeking either spiritual or financial gains. The hit county and western song by Tim McGraw, “Live Like You Were Dying” (written by Tim Nichols and Craig Wiseman) tells of a person with terminal illness who went sky diving and mountain climbing, but also built relationships with his friends and family. That’s a spiritual benefit from impending demise.

For the financial side, consider a person I knew in the mid-1980s who contracted AIDS, then a death sentence. I ran into him a few years after he left work. He told me that he had accepted every credit card offer that came in the mail, traveled the world and stayed in luxury hotels. Then new drug treatments were developed. He felt fine, he now expected to live a long life—but he had large debts he had never expected to pay off. (This was clearly dishonest, but some people do it.)

In other words, people do short their own personal demise, in one way or another.

Challenging pessimists on their investments is somewhat of a cheap shot. Suppose a person estimates a one-third probability that AI will end humanity, one-third probability that it will have trivial impacts, and one-third probability that it will dramatically improve the standard of living and safety of people. What’s the best investment strategy? Maybe not much different from a strategy that life continues unchanged.

Even someone who estimates a 90% probability of humanity’s demise might want to invest for that 10% probability of continued life. There may be no way to invest for the 90% probability event, but there is certainly a way to invest for the alternative.

Thinking about hedging an AI apocalypse more broadly leads to two approaches. One is often called “prepping,” being prepared to the loss of electricity and, more generally, no access to the goods and services we normally take for granted. This usually involves stocking non-perishable foods, water, medications, and tools for self-sufficiency. One might be motivated by worry about social collapse, rioting and looting. One could also worry about earthquakes, hurricanes and forest fires—or some calamity caused by AI.

The second approach is to go somewhere safer than the United States or Europe, somewhere like Dubai or Paraguay. It’s feasible to get legal residency in a number of countries. A top expert on the subject, Caleb Jones, suggests considering multiple places, as what would be best for one risk might not work for another. Parts of Paraguay, for example, are agricultural and likely to have food available if global supply chains fail. Dubai has other advantages, but locally-grown food is less available.

AI risk appears to me overblown. But if I am wrong, then I am very, very wrong. Some contingency planning for many risks makes sense. Most likely, though, life will continue kind of like it is, and we want to make sure that we are safe and comfortable in that scenario.

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