Grains Report - Thursday, July 8
WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were mixed yesterday and Minneapolis Spring Wheat was higher as the rain forecast for Spring Wheat areas is now less and as the Winter Wheat harvest continues. Yield reports have generally been good in Winter Wheat areas. Trends are mixed on the daily charts for the Winter Wheat markets. Minneapolis Spring What closed strong even with forecasts for some rains in important growing areas. There are ideas that the rains will not help much as they are late. The dry and hot weather seen to date have produced very low crop condition ratings and conditions are not expected to improve much if at all in coming weeks. Winter Wheat yield reports are strong, so the supply will likely be good once the harvest is complete. There have been some rains in the region to keep the harvest pressure on the slow side but the quality seems good. However, the Spring Wheat situation is different and a short crop is increasingly likely.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 586 and 524 September. Support is at 616, 610, and 594 September, with resistance at 638, 645, and 648 September. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 575 September. Support is at 578, 568, and 562 September, with resistance at 608, 613, and 628 September. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives f 762 and 698 September. Support is at 805, 796, and 779 September, and resistance is at 827, 835, and 846 September.
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RICE
General Comments: Rice closed a little higher in consolidation trading as USDA showed only very slight improvement in crop condition overnight. The crop overall appears to be in good shape. Growing conditions have been mixed at best with many areas getting too much rain. Rice areas have generally been wet and northern areas have been cool. Louisiana and parts of Mississippi were saturated and are still reported to be wetter than desired for strong production and good quality. Some big storms are in the forecast for the rest of the week. Warm temperatures are reported in Arkansas and Missouri and the crop progress is improving. However, it is still very wet in Arkansas and farmer progress has been limited for the last couple of weeks. Texas has been wet.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1272 and 1204 September. Support is at 1275, 1256, and 1250 September, with resistance at 1311, 1331, and 1340 September.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower on follow through speculative selling. Weather forecasts now call for cooler temperatures and generous rains in the Midwest, including in the very dry northwest parts of the belt. It will not be as hot in the Great Plains and western Midwest as it has been. Pollination is coming and it looks like pollination will happen under good conditions. Reports of damaging cold weather in Brazil a week ago supported the market. Temperatures got close to or just below freezing in parts of southern Brazil and on into Paraguay. Temperatures are more moderate now. There are ideas of losses to Corn in these areas, and some ideas are that the losses could be extensive in affected areas. Oats were higher. Canadian Oats areas look to get some rain in the next couple of weeks, but US areas showed mixed conditions in the weekly USDA updates. Longer range forecasts released by NWS call for warmer and drier weather for many important US growing areas this Summer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 528, 516, and 505 September, and resistance is at 570, 579, and 588 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 358 September. Support is at 366, 362, and 358 September, and resistance is at 379, 382, and 384 September.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher in response to the USDA report showing unchanged or slightly deteriorating crop conditions. Soybeans conditions in central production area are often too wet and have suffered. The weather forecasts changed to wetter and cooler and the crop needs dry conditions and some heat. Reports of big rains in much of the Midwest and forecasts for more rains in the coming week were negative, but some areas are now getting too much rain. Minnesota and northern Iowa and the Dakotas should get very beneficial rain. Forecasts call for cooler weather this week in the Midwest and northern Great Plains, and it should generally be wet. China has started with new US Soybeans purchases for Fall delivery. The longer range forecasts from NWS call for warmer and drier than normal conditions for most Soybeans areas of the US.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 122,200 tons of US Soybean Meal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1334, 1316, and 1299 August, and resistance is at 1400, 1408, and 1418 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 355.00, 347.00, and 341.00 August, and resistance is at 367.00, 375.00, and 379.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5900, 5770, and 5460 August, with resistance at 6220, 6560, and 6590 August.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were lower again today in sympathy with Chicago. Trends are mixe on the daily charts. The private surveyors showed more demand for last month in reports issued last week and ideas are that the stronger demand can continue as India has cut its import taxes. Canola closed higher on rumors of export buying, but found selling on weather concerns. Some showers are in the forecast for the Prairies this week and it remains generally dry. The showers have a chance to be very beneficial. Demand has improved a little bit with the recently weaker prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 762.00, 757.00, and 738.00 November, with resistance at 812.00, 836.00, and 838.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 3700, 3680, and 3590 September, with resistance at 3840, 3880, and 3930 September.
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