Grains Report - Friday, Sept. 24
Wheat
General Comments: Wheat was higher in all three markets as trends started to turn up on the daily charts. The weekly export sales report showed average sales but there is more talk that Russia would severely restrict Wheat exports due to production lost to drought. Production is less this year and internal prices have been strong. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market although the weather has become old news. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas but is still trending dry in southern areas and into Kazakhstan. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others and parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia are expecting strong yields. European quality is a problem due to too much rain in some areas and not enough in others.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 728, 738, and 769 December. Support is at 69707, 6701, and 686 December, with resistance at 723, 745, and 772 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed up with objectives of 728, 747, and 784 December. Support is at 707, 6702, and 686 December, with resistance at 723, 730, and 735 December. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 921, 926, and 938 December. Support is at 895, 880, and 862 December, and resistance is at 923, 933, and 9250 December.
Rice
General Comments: Rice closed a little lower in consolidation trading. November futures finally broke strong resistance at 1380 and have closed above that level for the last couple of days and this is considered a positive technical sign for prices. The first crop has been largely harvested in Texas and will soon be harvested in Louisiana, but the second crop s still in the field and is still at risk of loss in both states. Harvesting continues in Louisiana and Texas and will start to wind down in both states over the next couple of weeks. A delayed harvest is expected in Mississippi and Arkansas but a few producers are starting to harvest now. Yield reports and quality reports have been acceptable to many in Texas and are called good in Louisiana. The harvest pace is expected to be slow
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed up with objectives of 1408 and 1436 November. Support is at 1364, 1350, and 1343 November, with resistance at 1392, 1401, and 1406 November.
Corn And Oats
General Comments: Corn was higher and is breaking out to the upside on the daily charts even with ideas of expanding harvest progress and weaker demand. Traders are now waiting on the harvest and yield reports but the gut slot of the harvest is still a couple of weeks away. Ideas are that the yield reports will be high and will confirm the USDA production estimates or even find better yields. However, there have been reports of diseases in Illinois fields so record production might not happen in that state. Initial yield reports have been mixed, with some lower yields reported due to disease. There are still the drought-reduced crops in the northwestern Corn Belt and northern Great Plains to be counted as well. Most of the elevators along the Mississippi are starting to export again which is good news for nearby demand. New Orleans area elevators are now reported to be about 50% open. Electricity has been restored and the elevators are transloading grain if they are not fully open yet. The weather remains a feature of the trade but is less important now as the Corn is filling kernels and starting to mature. Ideas are that Brazil's Corn production could be less than 85 million tons so reduced production estimates are expected in coming reports.
Overnight News: USDA announced yesterday that Guatemala bought 138,403 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 547 and 573 December. Support is at 523, 513, and 504 December, and resistance is at 528, 543, and 548 December. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 597 and 636 December. Support is at 564, 558, and 537 December, and resistance is at 594, 600, and 606 December.
Soybeans
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil closed higher yesterday despite the approaching harvest, but Soybean Meal was lower. The debt ceiling fight in Congress and Chinese demand is supportive. People are worried about the taper away from debt by the Fed and how that will go as well. Harvest will soon be underway for Soybeans. The destruction of Gulf port facilities along the Mississippi River near New Orleans was still a factor in the trade but the elevators are coming online and exports are increasing slowly. The hurricane moved onshore in Louisiana a week ago and did extensive damage to the state, including the grain export elevators. The state also lost electrical posser in all affected areas but the power to the export elevators is being restored. China was the major buyer of US Soybeans in the weekly report even with cancellations showing. The demand news was positive for prices even though sales were down from the previous week and are less than the previous year.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1271, 1262, and 1258 November, and resistance is at 1300, 1309, and 13025 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 333.00, 331.00, and 328.00 October, and resistance is at 341.00, 344.00, and 349.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5550, 5420, and 5360 October, with resistance at 5850, 5950, and 56010 October
Canola And Palm Oil
General Comments: Palm Oil closed sharply higher yesterday on ideas of reduced production. It was lower today as liquidation selling was seen before the weekend and the new round of export data. Export volumes were up very significantly for Malaysia for the month so far. Ideas of strong export demand, especially from India, kept futures higher today. Exports were not strong last month and the trade saw big ending stocks when MPOB released its monthly data last week. Ideas are that Palm Oil got too expensive when compared to the other vegetable oils markets. There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola closed higher on Chicago price action as the harvest is underway amid good conditions in the Prairies. Production ideas are down due to the extreme weather seen in these areas. It remains generally dry and warm in the Prairies. The Prairies crops are in big trouble now due to previous hot and dry weather.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 854.00, 849.00, and 830.00 November, with resistance at 888.00, 900.00, and 902.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 4700 and 5050 December. Support is at 40340, 4200, and 4040 December, with resistance at 4500, 4560, and 4620 December.
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