What's Next

Today I got a promotional mail from Value Line reading” “What's next?” particularly appropriate today after yesterday's events disarray including the still buoyant stock market.

Here is a commentary from Jeremy Grantham of GMO, written of course before the events of Wednesday in Georgia, Washington D.C., and other state capitols:

“2020 matured into a fully fledged epic bubble featuring extreme overvaluation, explosive price increases, frenzied issuance, and hysterically speculative stock behavior.”

Welcome now to 2021 which features dangerous political and inflation risk and even more extreme valuation in a mere 4 days of trading. Rioters bearing confederate flags, viking helmets, and bare chests covered with fur vests took over Capitol Hill and four people were killed.

The stock market is gaining because of Biden being formally elected and because there is a clear way for him to function. But the frenzied rise in the DJIA to a new high given the political risk is scary.

We also saw the New York Stock Exchange blocking, unblocking, and now reblocking listings for 3 Chinese telephone companies and probably also blacklisting Alibaba. Plus a new more dangerous variant or mutation of the coronavirus which nullified Israel' claim to successful inoculation last week.

Pharma

*Israeli Teva made up a bit for that mishap by reporting that 2 trials of rispendone injection delayed recurrence of schizophrenia by 80% when given monthly, and by 6.25% when given every 2nd month. The drug is a standard one but the trials, including another still going on, are using an extended and controlled release technology called BEPO which TEVA licensed from MedinCell S.A. of Montpellier, France, to which it will pay fees. The 17-yr old tiny French firm also is working on a long-term injection against Covid-19 using proprietary co-polymers and a bio-compatible solvent. It trades as MEDCL in France.TEVA rose 0.315% despite it being Thursday. Then it reversed downward.

*Fellow Israeli Compugen rose 6.3% because Friday is a non-working day in Tel Aviv, which CGEN is also listed.

*US stock Bristol Myers and Japanese stocks Eisai (ESALY) and Takeda (TAK) fell, but Thermo Fisher topped $504 again. TMO is a US firm doing disease testing and my largest holding.

*Zymeworks rose 1.3%, a Canadian and was picked by Martin Ferera. ZYME later halved its gain.

*A renewed focus on treating Covid-19 with plasma boosted a US share I own, Cerus (CERS) but it is still cheap at $7.37. It is mainly owned by institutions and is still losing money.

*Roche fell 1.65%. RHHBY is Swiss and is offering a new covid-19 jab with French Sanofi.

*Indian Dr Reddy's (RDY) lost 1.57%.

Tech

*Israeli Tower Semiconductor finally caught the market's attention as an alternative to Chinese chips, and TSEM rose 6.7% to $28+.

*South African-listed Naspers took a 1.85% hit because the new mutation came from there. NPSNY is a media operator worldwide. It and its spinoff Prosus are treated as proxies for Tencent (sold.) It faces an Israeli competitor doing an ipo.

*Chinese carmaker Nio which can match discounts from rival electric car makers because it offers cheap chargers which it leases is up 6.9%. Leasing chargers means drivers can get them recharged without having to hang around, using cheaper power at night. It is up because of Plug Power becoming the partner of SK Group of Korea in electric vehicles. Geely (GELYF) is up 4.9% for the same reason.

*Nokia opened flat and then fell briefly below $4on fear of that the US Treasury will again reverse itself on Chinese telcom equipment with which NOK competes.

*However Vodafone is up 0.6% today, on a rolle because VOD is easy for Brits to trade and global.

*Mercado Libre gained 2.75% to $1617 but then fell back, but MELI is still up.

*Trip.com fell 1.2% today. I was too quick to expect tourism to recover. TCOM.

Finance

*AIA Group Ltd of Hong Kong rose another 5.66% as it is unlikely to suffer from US boycotts.

*Mexican REIT Fibra Uno rose 14.42% to $1.19, a new high from last March, because Trump is not going to build his wall. FBASF yields 6.83% and trades at under 16x earnings.

*Standard Life Aberdeen, UK fund manager-insurer, is up 0.2%. SLFPY is a quick Edinburgh exit.

*Sumitomo Mitsui (SMFG) gained 2.15% while Mitsubishi (MSHBF) gained 1.1%.

*Swedish Investor gained 2.5% today because IVSBF is exposed to Nasdaq but trades at 5.8x earnings. It opened for 2021 at $72.6 and is now $74.34. It is exiting the telecom towers business.

Energy and Ores

*Cameco (CCJ) saw unusual options activity which led the share price to rise.

*Algonquin gained 1.25% on the theory that President Biden will cut carbon permissions to US utes. AQN is Canadian and straddles the border with mostly green electricity.

*UUUU, Energy Fuels, which will be producing rare earths found with uranium, rose aanother 1.25%.

*Geothermal production and storage firm Ormat, ORA, US incorporated but Israeli owned, rose another 11.5% to $116.38 on very heavy volume despite being downgraded to neutral from buy by JP Morgan with a target price of $86. It was also rated unattractive by a Robo-Analyst which may fear being burned. Human analysts are cautiously bullish but the p/e ratio is 69x and the yield 44¢, which you don'e have to be a robot to worry about. It's at a 12-mo high. I sold half my stake at $116.43. and it promptly rose to $116.93. So I sold the rest. They are in my IRA.

*BP plc rose 1.7% despite having to pay a fine to the US Treasury for natural gas price manipulation 12 years ago at the Houston Ship Canal. BP is appealing the charges. Schlumberger is up 1.4%. However Royal Dutch Shell B (RBS.B) is down today but recuperating.

*Canadian Solar, CSIQ, gained 5.75% today being Chinese but not regulated there and not threatened by Beijing or Washington or both like Alibaba.

*Canada gold miner Kirkland Lake is where I parked my dosh from ORA because the risks of inflation and higher taxes here are up with the Biden White House, Senate, and House, however happy I am that he won. I paid $42.97 and $43.06. This is gold with a dividend plus growth.

*Vale (CVRD, sold) is facing a bill for as much as $5.3 bn but samba'ed up to $10.5 all the same.

 

Warning: free lunches are coming to an end. I am working with my corporate bank and Visa to bill for subscriptions which have not been paid for or renewed and to be able to deposit them directly. ...

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