Mark your calendars for Wednesday, July 19! At 07:00 UK time, the much-awaited UK inflation data will be revealed. Anticipations suggest that the headline figure will drop to 8.2% y/y from the previous 8.7%. However, the core reading is expected to remain stubbornly high at 7.1% y/y, aligning with its previous level.
Investors will be closely monitoring this release, seeking insights into how the UK is tackling its inflation battle. With the core inflation still hovering three times above the Bank of England's 2% target, there is significant work ahead. Should the core reading dip below economists' minimum projection of 6.6% y/y, brace yourself for rapid GBP selling. In particular note the strong seasonal bias in the GBPJPY pair.
Over the last 15 years, the GBPJPY pair has fallen 80% of the time for an average return of -1.61%. The maximum fall has been over 5% in 2008 and the maximum fall within the seasonal pattern has been over 7% in 2016. So, will the GBPJPY fall again this year between July 17 and August 26?
Major Trade Risks: Remember, that previous seasonal patterns do not necessarily play out every year, and don’t forget that BoJ policy will also impact this outlook as well as UK inflation data.
Disclaimer: Past results and past seasonal patterns are no indication of future performance, in particular, future market trends. seasonax GmbH neither recommends nor approves of any particular ...
Disclaimer: Past results and past seasonal patterns are no indication of future performance, in particular, future market trends. seasonax GmbH neither recommends nor approves of any particular financial instrument, group of securities, segment of industry, analysis interval or any particular idea, approach, strategy or attitude nor provides consulting nor brokerage nor asset management services. seasonax GmbH hereby excludes any explicit or implied trading recommendation, in particular, any promise, implication or guarantee that profits are earned and losses excluded, provided, however, that in case of doubt, these terms shall be interpreted in abroad sense. Any information provided by seasonax GmbH or on this website or any other kind of data media shall not be construed as any kind of guarantee, warranty or representation, in particular as set forth in a prospectus. Any user is solely responsible for the results or the trading strategy that is created, developed or applied. Indicators, trading strategies and functions provided by seasonax GmbH or on this website or any other kind of data media may contain logical or other errors leading to unexpected results, faulty trading signals and/or substantial losses. seasonax GmbH neither warrants nor guarantees the accuracy, completeness, quality, adequacy or content of the information provided by it or on this website or any other kind of data media. Any user is obligated to comply with any applicable capital market rules of the applicable jurisdiction. All published content and images on this website or any other kind of data media are protected by copyright. Any duplication, processing, distribution or any form of utilisation beyond the scope of copyright law shall require the prior written consent of the author or authors in question. Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Testimonials appearing on this website may not be representative of other clients or customers and is not a guarantee of future performance or success.
