On Wednesday at 13:30 UK time, the US CPI print will be released. The headline is expected to fall to 3.1% from 4% prior & a reading below 2.9% would likely weaken the USD. The core reading is also expected to fall to 5% from 5.3% prior, & a reading below 4.9% should also weaken the USD. The print that should boost the USD would be if both headline and the core come in above the market’s maximum expectations. However, there is also the possibility that if the CPI prints come in low the market might choose to focus on concerns surrounding falling US earnings which could ultimately boost the USD. So, it is quite a complicated picture.
From an event perspective, the EURUSD has fallen nearly 60% of the time out of CPI prints over the last 10 years. So, perhaps a high print could boost the USD higher and weaken the EURUSD?
Major Trade Risks: • The biggest risk here is to do with the market reaction to an out-of-consensus print. Also, note that previous reactions to market events are not guaranteed to happen again.
Disclaimer: Past results and past seasonal patterns are no indication of future performance, in particular, future market trends. seasonax GmbH neither recommends nor approves of any particular ...
Disclaimer: Past results and past seasonal patterns are no indication of future performance, in particular, future market trends. seasonax GmbH neither recommends nor approves of any particular financial instrument, group of securities, segment of industry, analysis interval or any particular idea, approach, strategy or attitude nor provides consulting nor brokerage nor asset management services. seasonax GmbH hereby excludes any explicit or implied trading recommendation, in particular, any promise, implication or guarantee that profits are earned and losses excluded, provided, however, that in case of doubt, these terms shall be interpreted in abroad sense. Any information provided by seasonax GmbH or on this website or any other kind of data media shall not be construed as any kind of guarantee, warranty or representation, in particular as set forth in a prospectus. Any user is solely responsible for the results or the trading strategy that is created, developed or applied. Indicators, trading strategies and functions provided by seasonax GmbH or on this website or any other kind of data media may contain logical or other errors leading to unexpected results, faulty trading signals and/or substantial losses. seasonax GmbH neither warrants nor guarantees the accuracy, completeness, quality, adequacy or content of the information provided by it or on this website or any other kind of data media. Any user is obligated to comply with any applicable capital market rules of the applicable jurisdiction. All published content and images on this website or any other kind of data media are protected by copyright. Any duplication, processing, distribution or any form of utilisation beyond the scope of copyright law shall require the prior written consent of the author or authors in question. Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Testimonials appearing on this website may not be representative of other clients or customers and is not a guarantee of future performance or success.
