The Fed Did Not Cause Inflation, Oil & Supply Chains Did

Board, Blackboard, Economy, Inflation, Money

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There's a false narrative that the Fed caused inflation. The Fed did not cause inflation. The Fed saved us from a depression. High oil prices caused by supply manipulation by Russia and Saudi Arabia are the primary reason that inflation is high. We can easily see in the data that energy costs are 50-60% of the cause of inflation.

Secondarily, supply chains coming out of China and gouging by shippers have added to inflation. Data suggests this is most of the remaining inflationary pressure. Those two facts mean that inflation is from the supply side, not the demand side. So, the potential mistake by the Fed is over-tightening, not being too loose.

If the Fed tightens too much, then manufacturing slows down on tighter financing and demand dries up. In other words, if the Fed tightens too much, we can see a recession. If you want to invest through this, understand that, as usual, the popular narratives are wrong and look for the biggest secular growth trends with the biggest total of addressable markets.

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Disclaimer: I own a Registered Investment Advisor, but publish separately from that entity for self-directed investors. See relevant ...

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Comments

Kurt Benson 2 years ago Member's comment

100% wrong.  Multiple mega energy pipeline cancellations in North America, always worsening hugely obstructive big gov't regulations, foreign funded lawfare activism, a colluding mainstream media to name a few engineered the oil shortage.  The plan was to make it impossible to do oil and gas business here and it's been working.  It's kind of a miracle that the oil shortage didn't happen sooner.

Seeking Alpha Reader 2 years ago Member's comment

I think the FED did cause the inflation. Purposely to devalue the Dollar. On PURPOSE. And they keep doing it until they have their digital Dollar installed which also will be FED controlled.