The China Investment Outlook

As I have no idea what the latest judicial coup d'etat in Thailand portends, and as I have not heard from either Cousin Simon or Paul Renaud who live there, I am not even going to try to figure out what it all means. Nor will I risk predicting the outcome of the Putin concessions on eastern Ukrainian elections.

It is puzzling that the dollar, US Treasury yields, and gold are all losing altitude; normally they price against each other. No, I cannot explain why the 10-yr Treasury yield fell to 2.59% from 2.62% yesterday as the dollar and gold both dropped. Putin's concessions may explain this--or not.

Let's change the subject. Shareholders are revolting.

Warren Buffett compares voting against excess executive pay to burping at the dinner table. You will be banned to the kitchen if you do this, he remarked at the weekend Omaha rally when criticized for backing the high and dilutive payouts at Coca Cola, where Berkshire Hathaway is the largest outside shareholder.

But in Britain, Alan Tovey writes in The Telegraph (Weds.) that there is a different mood:

A new wave of shareholder activism is building after investors in some the country’s best-known companies showed their disapproval over boardroom pay. Investors [are] actively voting against levels of pay and bonus, and do not include abstentions, where shareholders do not vote down a measure but do not back it either.

The revolts come a[s] investors in blue-chip companies AstraZeneca and Barclaysvoted their concerns over pay, echoing the “shareholder spring” that caused upheaval in boardrooms 2 years ago.

Online grocery business Ocado also felt shareholders’ ire, with 1 in 5 going against its remuneration report and almost 1 in 8 voting against the remuneration policy.

More follows from one of our British companies also facing shareholder rebellion plus news from Canada, Israel, Brazil, New Caledonia (a first), Britain, Mexico, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Macao, Panama, and Spain. Today's blog is late because I joined a conference call at 11 am on China and regional markets also summarized below. I listened mainly because Chinese trade grew modestly in April (exports up 0.9% vs Mar. decline of 6.6% imports up 0.8% vs Mar. decline of 11.3%.) The trade surpluse doubled to $18.45 bn and beat forecasts of $13.9 bn. China's may not be slowing down as much as expected.

*The conference call was for JP Morgan China Region Fund, JFC, with lead portfolio mgr Emerson Yip, a Yale math graduate. JFC gained more than double the benchmark in 2013 thanks to its heavier China investment "because of attractive valuation"; a lower Hong Kong level "based on stock-picking"; and "roughly even Taiwan weighting".

In 2014 YTD however the fund missed its benchmark so far. Moreover it is at an 11.6% discount from net asset value, greater than its norm. Blame too much Mainland, "high-flying growth stocks correcting" and the weakening RMB.

Taiwan outperformed YTD and Hong Kong (which Yip called "a derivative play on China outbound spending") lost tourist and retail spending, to say nothing of selling apartments where prices have slipped sharply. Taiwan has been in a slow growth pattern for years, its export-oriented economy hurt by the global economic crisis. Closer integration with China should drive better performance going forward. Taiwan can benefit from becoming the main seller of smart phones and devices to China. It can parallel "what has happened to Hong Kong from China integration".

Mr. Yip is sticking to his guns. Reforms by Beijing aim at "quality and sustainability at the expense of short-term growth". This Mr Yip says is "a medium-term buying opportunity which will translate to higher equity returns". "The desired slowdown by Beijing is a healthy adjustment," he added.

Some other take-aways: "We tend to be underweight energy, materials, and construction and think solar, wind, and gas will outperform." "We are negative on Hong Kong property and utilities" but think "Chinese property will be able to outperform the broader market" along with autos. Macau gaming is a theme not being abandoned, with the offshore center offering gamblers a way to play without doing so within China. But the govt-sector high rollers are no longer the key profit driver.

Back to the big country, China is undergoing a slow-down but for a while now "exports have not been an important driver of GDP growth" . In fact "investment and consumption have to increase to have a sustainable growth for China." "The world's factory has to move on to the next stage and become the consumer of the world," Mr Yip summarized. This he added, "presents a growth opportunity for Chinese corporates".

However he is not a status quo kind of guy. "Market forces need to play a bigger role in the Chinese economy while the role of the state has to recede. China has to open to the outside world. China has to change its social safety net to improve pension, healthcare coverage, relax the on-child policy, and liberalizing the hukou system" [of residency permits].

Mr Yip added: "The only way to reduce the level of corruption is have the vast government role reduced. Cleaning up the role of the state ultimately will lead to a more stable and healthy growth but the short-term effect will require short-term adjustment in the luxury market in China."

Asked to comment on the will to reform of the new masters of China, Mr. Yip opined: "Every incoming administration talks about reform and then stops." But he cited two reasons why it is different this time. First the is far more public awareness of corruption. And also the new Beijing govt is stronger than recent predecessors.

Mr. Yip addressed the hoopla over Alibaba: "One theme we are participating in is social media and e-commerce but we are in the early stages in consumer revival and the internet."

He also cited solar and wind growth and revealed new target capacity figures JP Morgan came up with.

He concluded: "The China story has many years to run."

Natch he didn't address my complaints about how the JFC discount reflects the failure of the Morgan back office to provide current net asset value data to US small investors like us. More fund notes below.

*Consumer goods giant Reckitt Benckiser suffered the biggest shareholder revolt Wednesday with more than 1 in 3 investors actively voting against the executives’ remuneration report. A further 1 in 5 voted against the FTSE 100 company’s forward-looking remuneration policy, with 1 in 5 going against its remuneration report and almost 1 in 8 voting against the remuneration policy.

The Telegraph's Tovey wrote: ahead of the annual meeting RBGLY "held talks with shareholders who expressed concerns about how clear the company’s bonus structure was. These worries will be reflected in the next annual report."

*Our counter espionage reporter Frida Ghitis writes about Caesarstone Sdot Yam CSTE:

The manufacturer of kitchen countertops saw strong sales and profits with Q1 revenues topping $94.4 mn, up 24% y/o and profits at $13.3 mn up nearly 30%. CEO Josef Shiran forecast 2014 revenues will reach $420-430 mn and full year profits $108-113 mn, $4 mn over prior company forecasts, mainly from North American growth which already accounts for ~2/3 of sales. A new plant will be completed in mid-2015 in Georgia as reported earlier but it will now be topped up with a second production line by the end of 2015.

Not all the data are positive. Gross margins shrank from 44.8% to 41.5% which CSTE blamed on exchange rate shifts and higher material costs. The stock has now drawn analyst attention with 'buy' ratings boosting the share price ~10% YTD. The risk is higher operating costs for the new facilities.

Vivian adds: Georgia-resident Frida already has CSTE countertops in her  kitchen and enthusiasticly covers this share, as our counter espionage reporter. The stock is down marginally today to $52.50.

*UK brokerage Daniel Stewart & Co weighed in with a strong buy write-up on Naibu Global after the Alternative Investment Market company making branded sportswear for Chinese teens reported 2013 results which beat forecasts. NBU-AIM revenues in 2013 rose 15% to RMB 1.928 bn, (~$366 mn), 5% ahead of the DS&C forecast. Profits before tax rose 16% to RMN 417 mn (~$33.4 mn), also beating by 5%. The broker has a target price for NBU of 200 British pence; it is currently trading at 67 pence.

A negative is that the gross profit margin fell marginally last year to 27.8% from 28% the year before explained by more outsourcing of clothing and more sales of lower-margin shoes than higher-margin clothing and accessories. This may prove worse this year, I fear.

The main problem is that the planned garment factory in Quangang has not been able to start producing because of labor shortages (and high wages.) So Naibu is making do with it Jinjiang factory and outsourcing clothing manufacturing. The Quangang factory is now expected to go on stream this summer.

Naibu also is becoming more provincial with a new factory planned in Dazhu, Sichan province, with 12 production lines coming on-stream early in 2016.

The brokerage lowered its revenue growth assumptions for 2014 to 7% from 10% because of factory problems and also cut its gross profit margin estimates slightly. However, it noted that 2013 sales, general, and administration expenses (S,G&A) came in below its forecasts so it kept its before-tax net profit estimate for this year unchanged.

NBU declared a final dividend for 2013 of 4 UK pence adding to the 2 pence already paid. That means there is a 9.2% yield on this share. Naibu closed 2013 with RMB 468 mn in cash (GBP 47 mn or $84.6 mn.) The Dazho factory will cost RMB 300 mn, DS&C estimates which the company can fund from its existing reserve and cash generated from operations in the next two years.

Last year Naibu opened 148 own-branded stores mostly in smaller cities, bringing its total to 3,188 sites.

The stock is cheap, trading at 1.1x its earnings last year. And net cash is greater than the GBP 39.3 mn market cap at GBP 57.9 mn. It is the no. 10 maker of branded sportswear for the Chinese market and, as this grandmother keeps noting, a great potential play for luring the spending on their sole adolescent grandchild for every quartet of Chinese grandparents.

*Liberty Media 50:50 with Discovery Communications is taking over All3Media, an indie TV production firm in Britain owned by its founders and Permira Fund. All3 had revenues of GBP 500 mn last year and he price to be paid is GBP 550 mn, ~$930 mn. LBTYA-LBTYK will not consolidate All3. The deal is expected to close in Q3 at about 8.5 times earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, pending regulatory approvals. The two buyers will put up GBP 90 mn each in cash with the rest funded with equity and non-recourse credit facilities. Discovery is the US-based pay TV firm and Liberty is John Malone's quadruple-play vehicle for Europe, increasingly looking like a cable TV company.

All3 has dozens of production and distribution companies in Britain, Europe, the Antipodes and the USA.

As warned I would, your editor sold LBTYK today at $40.93. For taxes treat half the value of LBTYA as being the cost of the C shares.

*Citing analyst Jean-Baptiste Bruny of BBVA, Bloomberg wrote up Mexichem favorably today, citing its policy of creating partnerships with the govt as Mexico opens its energy industry as well as its successful acquisitions in the private sector. It has "grown organically and inorganically by making good purchases at low prices," Bruny said in Mexico City. He added: "there are several more options to establish joint ventures in the mid- to long-term."

Of course the main interest is in its potential deals wit the state sector once energy laws are rewritten. It operates a petrochemical plant in Parajitos together with Petroleos Mexicanos, Pemex, the state giant. Now Pemex plans to quadruple petrochem downstream investment over the next 4 years to NMP 50.4 bn ($3.9 bn) and a likely jv partners is MXCHF.

Pemex potential is why we bought MXCHF but alas its 2013 results didn't live up to my expectations. In Q1 however MXCHF boosted sales by 8.5% y/y thanks to the Pemex venture and better vinyl chloride monomer sales. Quarterly profits however disappointed, at $51.4 mn, missing consensus forecasts because of a 36% drop in cash flow (EBITDA earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization), down 7.4% to $198 mn. The cause was fluorine output falling.

MXCHF analysts say the EBITDA will improve on better fluoride chain prices. Mexichem also got a boosted Fitch credit rating which will make acquisition finance easier. Its share rose 17% in pesos in the last 2 months and gained another 3.6% yesterday to NMP 51.41, well ahead of the other dozen top Mexican companies.

Mexichem is also reportedly considering creating a co-generation plant producing 500 mW/yr electricity according to Bloomberg, in another swipe at the protected Mexican state sector. The power generating arm is called Mexichem Energy and may be wholly owned and private.

Mr. Bruny said: "It seems feasible that the company has the potential to return to a historic level of 15-20% growth" but he rates MXCHF only a hold. Fluoride is used for refrigerants, unleaded gas, and toothpaste. MXCHF owns the world's largest fluorite mine in St. Louis Potosi.

*Bombardier also drew Bloomberg attention today but remained grounded. "What the C-Series jet still lacks are orders and big-name airline support" it wrote, after noting that the flight test and debut dates have now been fixed by BDRAF after delays. Bloomberg quotes analyst David Tyerman of Canaccord Genuity as calling BDRAF "the worst performer among Canadian industrial stocks in the 21st century" citing its "distressing order book". BDRAF has only 203 orders for the single-aisle regional jet and it has only one high-flying airline on its list,Lufthansa. The biggest order is from US Republic Airways for 40 planes.

The situation may change as take off comes closer and potential buyers visit the Montreal company. The stock is off 9.3% YTD vs a 4.7% gain for the Toronto benchmark. The C-Series will make or break BDRAF, and it saves fuel and money thanks to a geared turbofan Pratt & Whitney engine. Setting this into a new plane caused delays in the maiden flight to late next year and boosted the costs to C$4.4 bn, $1 bn over the original estimates. We are not parachuting out after sitting on the tarmac with BDRAF so long. The stock rose 1.6% today so I am not sitting there alone defying Bloomberg.

*Another day another new high for Banco Santander, SAN.

*Compugen, due to report May 19, keeps dropping, down ~11% today. CGEN

*Your editor anticipated that Bank of Nova Scotia would go shopping when we bought CI Financial, CIFAF. However, BNS opted to buy 20% of the financial services arm of Canadian Tire today for $500 mn and left CIFAF alone. The deal will be accretive this year. No I didn't know the tire-maker sells financial services.

*Another bit of takeover news is that Teva is likely to buy Cipla, an Indian generics maker, for $6 bn, according to reports in Indian and Israeli media denied by Cipla so far. The drug business is consolidating.

*Our generics target firm is unlikely to draw the Israeli giant's attention. Hikma is Jordanian and listed in Dubai and London. But a riposte to TEVA could well engage HKMPY reportedly in the sights of Mylan.

*Hope that Vale can make up for some of the erosion of demand and prices for iron ore pellets by mounting nickel demand and prices was hit by a govt ban on its New Caledonian production after a local spill. VALE also mines nickel in Canada. Nickel, a component of steel, is in short supply because Indonesia has blocked nickel exports to encourage downstream operations and because Russia faces sanctions. Vale is off 2.5% on the news at $13.2.

*CIBC reported on Veresen (in C$s), FCGYF:

"We maintain our [speculative outperform] rating and $18.50 [target price]. We expect the de-risking of Veresen's $8B Jordan Cove (JC) project to result in material share price appreciation. We estimate JC is worth $4.50/sh risked, and calculate an incremental $2.50/sh from de-risking through to 2015.

"Veresen expects the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to release the draft Environmental Impact Statement [this] Q2 [and] also provide a target date for issuing the final EIS. [A] FERC notice to proceed (a major project milestone) typically follows the final EIS.

"Veresen is analyzing the optimal ownership in the JC project. The most significant driver of value for Veresen is its ultimate retained interest. Our valuation reflects an ownership interest [of] 30-50%.

"Veresen maintained its $1.09 2014 mid-point distributable cash flow per share guidance with a more narrow range of $0.97-$1.20 [from $0.93-$1.25] despite issuing $285 mn of equity in Q2."CIBC estimates 2014 DCPS of C$1.10. The stock is up 1% in US trading.

*Banco Latino-Americano de Comercio, the Panama export credit outfit, borrowed $250 mn in a 3.5 year syndicated credit placed by Bank of Toyko and Standard Chartered, presumably in Asian markets. The money will support BLX medium-term lending but the interest rate was not revealed. Ai. Maybe that's why BLX shares fell on the news.

*Flight simulator CAE sold 4 devices worth ~C$60 mn to Pacific Rim customers: aBoeing 747-8 simulator to Air China; and 3 ATR-600 simulators to Air New Zealand,Indonesian Garuda, and an unnamed customer.

*GlaxoSmithKline won EU marketing okay for its Anoro 1x/day brocho-dilator treatment for adults with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease using a Theravancedelivery system in two strengths. It will hit the market later this year.

*Echoing Harry Geisel's boost for Lenzing, LNZNF, Eduardo Garcia in Mexico City today wrote about the rise in up-market synthetic fibers dethroning King Cotton. Great minds think alike. Eduardo writes that south of the border garment-makers also are replacing cotton with synthetics.

The nice thing about tencel from Lenzing is that it is not really a synthetic and has cotton-style wicking and anti-persperation qualities which are important in guarabaya shirts for tropical parts of Mexico.

*Fund notes: Two new international currency-hedged dividend exchange-trade funds are being launched today: WisdomTree International Hedged Dividend Growth Fund, IHDG; and WisdomTree Europe Dividend Growth Fund, EUDG. Both track in-house benchmarks, the first linked to the MSCI EAFE (Europe, Americas, Far East) index and the latter the European part. The currency risk is hedged out to keep the dividends fixed in US$. The in-house indexes are aimed at finding stocks with the best growth and quality features. In fact the startup portfolio is 20% invested in Britain with big holdings also in Switzerland, Australia, Germany, Sweden, and Japan.

IHDG invests in the top 200 companies based on growth-cum-quality in all industrial countries. EUDG allocates 20% to the UK. The top holdings of both funds (in different percentages) are: RocheBHP Billiton, and Nestle.

The expense ratio is 0.58% in both ETFs. This is an attempt to lure investors into going global without risks: removing currency movements or any real tilt between growth or income. In case it is not obvious, we do not do the same. Hence our smaller caps like CSTE and our AIM stocks like CAMK, and NBI, RUS, and AOF reported on yesterday.

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