Speculator Extremes: Steel, Palladium & Russell 2000 Lead Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro Research of InvestMacro

Sunday, January 25, 2026 2:40 PM EST

Stock, Trading, Monitor, Business

Image source: Pixabay

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on Jan. 20.

This weekly report highlights the most bullish and most bearish positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous three years. We use a reading of over 80% as extremely bullish and under 20% as extremely bearish (you can compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table).

(Click on image to enlarge)

Here are this week's most bullish speculator positions.

Steel

(Click on image to enlarge)

The steel speculator positioning came in as the most bullish extreme standing this week, as the speculator level is currently at a maximum 100% score of its three-year range.

The six-week trend for the strength score totaled a gain of 20 percentage points this week, while the overall net speculator position was a total of 11,671 net contracts this week with an increase of 649 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Palladium

(Click on image to enlarge)

The palladium speculator position came up next in the extreme standings this week. The speculator level is now at a 98% score of its three-year range, while the six-week trend for the strength score saw a rise by 6 percentage points this week.

The overall speculator positioning registered 888 net contracts this week, with a weekly dip of -337 contracts in speculator bets.

Russell 2000 Mini

(Click on image to enlarge)

The Russell 2000 Mini speculator positioning came in third this week in the extreme standings, as the Russell speculator level resides at a 95% score of its three-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in with a strong boost of 33 percentage points this week.

The overall speculator position was 20,563 net contracts this week, with a rise of 9,126 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

MSCI EAFE Mini

(Click on image to enlarge)

The MSCI EAFE Mini speculator positioning came in next in the extreme standings this week. The speculator level is also at a 95% score of its three-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score increased by 8 percentage points this week.

The overall speculator position was 24,569 net contracts this week, with a decline of -4,784 contracts in the speculator bets.

Copper

(Click on image to enlarge)

The copper speculator positioning rounded out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings, as the speculator level sits at an 82% score of its three-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score saw a drop of -9 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was 52,575 net contracts this week, with a decline of -866 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Next, here are the most bearish speculator positions of the week.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Natural Gas

(Click on image to enlarge)

The natural gas speculator positioning came in tied for the most bearish extreme standing of the week, with the speculator level at a 0% score of its three-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score saw a drop of -61 percentage points this week.

The overall net speculator position was -193,490 contracts this week, with a decrease of -7,889 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

(Click on image to enlarge)

The cocoa futures speculator position came in tied as the most bearish extreme standing this week, as the speculator level is at a minimum 0% score of its three-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score saw a decline of -14 percentage points this week.

The overall speculator position was -17,874 net contracts this week, with a decrease of -8,378 contracts in the speculator bets.

Sugar

(Click on image to enlarge)

The sugar speculator positioning came in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week, with the speculator level residing at a 5% score of its three-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score saw a small bump up by 1 point this week.

The overall speculator position was -178,348 net contracts this week, with a slide by -12,637 contracts in the speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar

(Click on image to enlarge)

The New Zealand dollar speculator positioning came in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing, with the speculator level sitting at an 8% score of its three-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score saw a gain of 8 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was -49,610 net contracts this week, with a change of -759 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

(Click on image to enlarge)

The WTI crude oil speculator positioning came in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The speculator level is at just a 13% score of its three-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score saw a rise of 7 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was 78,792 net contracts this week, with a boost by 20,664 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

More By This Author:

Speculator Extremes: Steel, Palladium & EAFE MINI Lead Weekly Bullish Positions
Currency Speculator Bets Improving For GBP, MXN, Going Bearish For JPY
Speculator Extremes: Palladium, Steel, WTI Crude & Sugar Lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes: Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and ...

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes: Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is three days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits), and non-reportable traders (usually small traders/speculators), as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment.Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. As with all investment ideas, past performance does not guarantee future results.

less

How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.