Q&A With Readers And My Latest Foreign Stock Tips

My notes from readers continue to pile in. Thanks to everyone giving me their views. Here is one email and my response:

“Having cash in these markets seems crazy. I also strongly wonder about the wisdom of investing in a country where the ruling class seems to hate business and not understand who pays the bills. Further, it shocks and scares me that they seem willing to just fine the banks huge amounts almost just to prove they can do it. The banks were forced to make loans in neighborhoods they knew were not profitable. “They then figured out a way to move the "risk" which led to the meltdown. That is simplistic, but I also believe it is basically true.”

I replied:

While I admit the US is not the worst offender I am not advising purchase in the US stock and bond markets. My writing is exclusively about non-US stocks. The US ruling class doesn't hate business; it is split right down the middle which makes it incapable of doing much at all. And I think we need serious moves on tax reform, healthcare and education upgrades, and infrastructure spending rather than a leviathan looking like laocoon and incapable of doing anything.

If your principles lead you to say out of the market you are missing some real easy gains. Our 1-yr returns according to Mark Hulbert (despite the high dollar hurting our positions) was 18.8%, my best year ever according to this Dow Jones newsletter rater. You can do even better in US shares which are being boosted by the Fed and are in dollars.

Why say no to profits because you think Obama is insufficiently pro-profits? Are you insufficiently pro-profits?

A more important suggestion came from another reader: SG.

SG suggests that I offer a weekly summary of news on the part of our portfolios more interesting to her because she wants diversification and not too much work as she is 77: the closed-end and exchange-traded funds only. We cover such funds for investment outside the USA, and also hedge currency risks with ETFs. Moreover we mostly own gold via funds, another hedge.

A sample of the weekly is below.

She didn't suggest a price point but it could be as low as $49 per year. Is anyone else interested in this?

Today's we have a note about the Holy Ghost at The Mouth of Hell, a stock downrating, and news from China, Israel, Mongolia, Canada, Britain, and fund updates.

*Poland resumed delivering natural gas to Ukraine today despite a cut in normal delivery levels from Gazprom all week. PGNiG, the local state-owned gas company, was able to cover the shortfall by importing gas from Germany and Czech Republic for trans-shipment to Ukraine. Kiev now has to import its gas from other sources as Russia has blocked its direct supplies when Ukraine could not pay quadruplied gas prices imposed after the fall of the pro-Russian Yevtushenko govt. Poland ships 4 mn cu meters of gas to Ukraine and is a stalwart supporter of Ukrainian independence. Russia in the past has blocked Polish supplies over political disputes.

We have a horse in this race, MSCI Polish Investable Index Fund, an ETF, traded as EPOL.

*Newsletter watcher Mark Hulbert writes in asknewswires@dowjones.com today that what investors really want to buy is an ETF that invests in “boring” “yawnfest” shares, which are the least volatile. The boring ETF returned nearly 20% from 1990 to 2013 while the most volatile shares returned only 10%.

While focused on US shares, he actually wrote about two low-volatility shares in our portfolio based on his own measure of volatility: recent dd Novartis (NVS) which is Swiss; and Canadian BCE Inc (BCE) a telco. You can buy them (plus a lot of bog-standard US stocks) via iShares MSCI USA Minimum Volatility Index Fund (USMV) and the Power Shares S&P Low Volatility Portfolio (SPLV). While Mark doesn't say which fund holds shares we also recommend, I expect it is the latter. He also called Toronto Dominion Bank which we don't own a good low-volatility play. To be listed the share had to be low volatility according to his screening and be recommended by at least one newsletter which has beaten the stock market over the last 15 years. I think I made the latter cut. Mark edits Hulbert's Financial Digest which tracks newsletter performance.

*One way to cover risk in your portfolio is through an ETF, Proshares Ultra VIX Short-term Futures

or UXVY which aims to double the return of the S&P daily volatility index using 1-mo forward futures. They work better in short bursts but I just keep them around as a form of portfolio insurance I don't have to watch.

*Mongolian Growth Fund reported on its July results which saw rental income rise 22% over July 2013 levels in Mongolian Togrog. Billed revenue rose 1.6% to TGG222.7 mn. This data is for properties held 12 months or longer only. The occupancy rate last July was 94.7% for properties which include retail and office sites. MNGGF also reported that Mongolian GDP rose 5.3% in H1 in real terms (I am not sure if this was during H1 or annualized, but it's pretty impressive either way, but from a low base.)

It is seeking access to world markets via a piepline for natural gas from Russia and Russian Development Bank funding for thermal power plants at US$74 mn. Other neighbor China is offering $162 mn in development loans to Mongolia and giving it access to 8 Chinese seaports. Both Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping visited Mongolia in recent weeks.

Mongolia copper exports hit $1.2 bn in the year to end August, vs a mere $470.4 mn in 2013 (either in the 7 months or for the full year.)

*Aberdeen Global Income Fund will pay a 7 cent dividend at the end of Sept. flat with earlier. It is made up 74% of investment income and 26% of untaxable return of capital. FCO now reports this at mid-month rather than right before the payment is made, under new Aberdeen rules but the levels have been the same all year. At the end of the year there may be an adjustment in the breakdown with the issue of 1099 forms.

*Aberdeen Asia Pacific Income fund will pay us a flat 3.5 cent dividend at month end, made up 62% of investment income and 38% of return of capital. FAX payout breakdown is also flat but it also may be adjusted in the IRS forms.

*Cecilia Gondar who recently retired from Thomas Herzfeld's Miami closed-end fund brokerage and fund management firm to move to Virginia, has been named a director by the board of Herzfeld Caribbean Basin Fund (CUBA). She counts as an interested person under SEC rules.

*A writer on www.seekingalpha.com named Jack Foley of Madrid said to buy Power Shares US$ Index Bullish shares, UUP, because he thinks his neighbors in Spain and other Europeans will be buying dollalr assets. His entry point will be a lot higher than the $21.08 we paid.

*Later today we should hear from closed-end EatonVance Tax Managed Global Dividend Equity Income Fund on the makeup of its monthly distributions. In contrast to earlier, last month EXG reported its entire dividend was from investment income (dividends and realized capital gains.) It yields 9.5%. 

*Simon Willis, the analyst at Daniel Stewart (of London) covering Naibu Global, listed as NBU on the London Stock Exchange Alternative Investment Market, has cut his rating to hold from buy. This is a Chinese firm making sportswear and shoes aimed at the youth market. In Aug. it reported that revnues had risen 8.4% in H1 to RMB 1.03 bn and that while volumes were up, profits had falled by 3.9% to RMB 206 mn. It blamed problems finding workers to turn out its footwear brands, and having to outsource their manufacture, which increased costs. It halted the planned opening of a plant at Quangang where sneakers were to be made.

Now NBU has decided to conserve cash and will not pay an interim dividend (it paid 2 pence for H1 2013). Steward covers NBU and is also its NOMAD, having helped it list on the AIM. NBU closed the half year with cash on hand of RMB 333 mn vs RMB 468 mn at the start of 2014. It has no debt. Apart from higher costs, the cash burn resulted from NBU extending an extra month of credit to its distributors because of competitive pressures.

While the eastern China plant is still mothballed, NBU is going ahead with a factory in Dazhu, in inland Sichuan Province which is expected to go live in Q2 2016.

Stewart reiterated its before tax profit estimates of RMB 385 mn for this year and next but it now expects there will be no dividend next year either. It cut its NBU target price to 50 UK pence which is roughly where it was last night. Now it has fallen to 31 pence, off nearly 40%.

The stock now trades at 1.1x earnings and the market cap more or less corresponds to the cash. But no dividend means no buy recommendation.

*The rot has spread to another Daniel Stewart China play, China Chainteck United Co., which fell to 88.565 pence, from 95 pence. These are very illiquid shares traded on the not-totally-respectable AIM. We got into them because another Chinese AIM clothing stock tipped by The Investors Chronicle, a Financial Times publication, Camkids (CAMK) proved unpurchasable. Then coverage ceased and the share collapsed. At least the brokerage (found by Vivian Ng, a Hong Kong writer) continues to report on its picks. More on another AIM stock below.

*The home of Ricardo Espirito Santo Salgado northwest of Lisbon is called Boca do Inferno. The Holy Ghost lives at the Mouth of Hell.

Today's Financial Times lays out the way the Banco Espirito Santo which he headed sold billions of euros of short-term debt to its Portuguese banking clients, including Portugal Telecom because it couldn't raise funds on the market.

From 2011 or 2012, these sums were illegally channeled through Luxembourg holding companies, an Angolan sub of BES with corrupt partners, and Panamanian sub the family controlled according to the FT. The money was used to illegally finance BES, which was bailed out in August. The internal off-balance sheet deals were hidden from clients, the KPMG auditors, and its supervisors, the Bank of Portugal (CB) and the Lisbon stock market regulator.

The covert funding and corrupt dealings led the CB to assure customers inside Portugal as recently as June that the bank was sound. Recriminations have started and a CB official and the former CFO of BES have been forced to resign. The forensic audit now going on for the CB (by PwC, a different auditor) enhance the chances for a recovery of its short-term commercial paper loan to a Luxembourg entity of the BES complex, Rioforte, by PT. In the interim it yields 5.8%. PT rose 1.8% today.

*The FT also reports that Vodafone, the UK telco, may bid for Liberty Global Media, LBTYA, the European vehicle of cable magnate John Malone. Vittorio Colao, VOD CEO, apparently remarked that LBTYA with an enterprise value of $74 bn “might be a good fit at the right price.” Formerly he had said “not now but not never” to a Liberty deal. VOD, whose Yankee bonds are in the model portfolio, saw its stock fall and then rise over this news. Your editor owns VOD common but it is not in the model portfolio.

*Teva today reported that its Copaxone multiple sclerosis drug (facing a possible patent cliff) has different gene expression than rival glatiramer acetate products to treat multiple sclerosis at a Boston meeting of MS doctors. The differences were found in cell stimulation and lab tests. It is sowing doubt about whether MS patients can be switched to a generic manufactured differently from human monocyte cell lines from Teva's which may have different mechanisms of action. The real risk is a monthly jab.

*Vale has sold its entire stake in Heron Resources of Australia which is in the zinc business. BHP also exited the Oz co. The two giants were replaced by Sprott Inc., a fund manager. Details to follow when they become available. Iron ore companies need funds.

*Pure Technologies, PPEHF, is buying a former unlisted partner in providing oil and gas pipeline inspection services using PUR's small ball leak detector, Hunter McDonnell (HM). PPEHF is paying $8 mn, . Of shich $6 mn is cash and the rest shares. The payments will be made over the next 3 years. The deal was called “highly accreditive” by PPEHF CEO Jack Elliott. For the past 4 years HM has used Pure's systems to check oil pipelines in North America and since Aug. 2013 the two firms have had a partnership which provides integrity checks on non-piggable hydrocarbon pipelines. HM is run out of Edmunton (AB) while PPEHF is a Calgary-based small cap. It is off 2.4% on the news.

*Another oil patch Canada small cap is down today. Computer Modelling Group (CMDXF) makes computer software to model reservoirs and is being hurt by sanctions against Gazprom.

*The strike and lockout at Cameco's McArthur River uranium mine have ended.CCJ is up on the news but the terms of the settlement are not yet out. US uranium miner Urananz is up even more.

*Schlumberger Ltd, also down, was called “an enticing investment at its current price” by an anonymous writer on www.seekingalpha.com. We favor its 20.1% shareholding Anton Oilfield Services of Beijing, listed in Hong Kong, also found for us by Vivian Ng. Unlike SLB, ATONY is not subject to the new embargo on providing oilfield services to Russia.

*Two more articles in www.seekingalpha.com about Novartis, NVS, one highly bullish and one skeptical by Robert Honeywill who says he is long-only. Mr. Honeywill notes that an earlier heart drug NVS put out 2 years ago under its former management, called Serelaxin, on which the new LCZ696 builds, was issued with much fanfare, proved to be a dud. Its trial results did not pan out. I assume the latest trials were handled more intelligently as they were halted on compassionate grounds so all the participants could get LCZ696.

NVS is building a rew $20 mn research center at Penn Medicine U to develop new immuno oncloogy drugs using genetically-engineered patient T-cells with chimeric antigen receptors or CAR-T cells. These may be usable to kill cancer cells. NVS and Penn are in a race with JunoTherapeutics in Seattle to develolp CACT and they are also suing each other over the technology used.

More about NVS above.

*Heh heh. Having opted to reverse my trade in OJSC Cherkizovo on compliance grounds, E-trade has so far been unable to do the trade. This is also a London AIM listed stock.

Disclosure: None

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