Oil And Loonie Looking Vulnerable

Oil and the Canadian dollar are hyped up once more on record speculative long bets. Downside now looms large on the slightest de-escalation in the Middle East amid slowing world demand and a secular increase in global inventories.

Ed Morse, global head of commodities at Citigroup Research, and Bloomberg View columnist Gary Shilling, discuss the outlook for the price of oil amid geopolitical risks. Here is a direct video link.

So far, the US/CAD index is bouncing this morning. Longer term support remains in the $1.24 per C$ area (green line below) as shown in this chart from my partner Cory Venable. Fundamental factors suggesting lower for longer loonie, remain in tact.

 

Disclosure: None.

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Larry Ramer 3 years ago Contributor's comment

You don't think that tensions are more likely to rise than decrease in the Middle East in the near-term? Consider that John Bolton, who very much believes in taking on the Iranians, recently started his tenure as Trump's national security adviser.