S&P 500 did its best to challenge Wednesday‘s lows, but sellers proved tired well before the power hour. No matter the risk-off sectoral view with interest-rate sensitive names outperforming on a daily and 5-day basis alike – it‘s though the various percentages of stocks trading above different periods of moving averages that ticked up Thursday, indicating a pause right ahead in the subdued, narrow range stock market trading.

Italy‘s Meloni visit to the White House adds a positive bias to the ongoing trade deal negotiations while Japan‘s delegation didn‘t mince words, and China continues holding out (LNG exports hard cut Saturday). Yields are thus once again turning up, the 10 to 2-year spread remains elevated, and USD is getting used to trading below 100 – hardly signs of upcoming vigorous stock makret upturn for good and for real, one to last – for that, money flows back into the US need to kick in, and that‘s currently not the case – European and international stocks are outperforming as the US trade initiatives seek to rebalance international trade, which will of course be reflected in lesser need for USD (capital account reflection) and the already discussed quickened multipolarity.

Extensive weekend video deals with all of these subjects, diving into inflation prospects, recession worries, precious metals, oil and Bitcoin while examining various ratios in the stock market and real assets alike so as to determine the next move probabilities – with the clear risk-off conclusion as not just gold to silver or gold to copper ratio, say.

The video is a must-watch presenting many charts together with S&P 500 market-breadth-derived perspectives. I talk precious metals as regards Bitcoin prospects in this charged week of USD settling below 100 – where is a rebound, where are the country deals to allow for dollar stabilization and greater need for use in international trade once again (Japan is but one key country, then there is the talked up „we‘ll have a deal with China too“)… surely that would allow for quite some gold price move, notably against the backdrop of quite going parabolic lately, isn‘t it so.

While I‘m presenting some outlines in the video to spur your thinking, clear cut answers are reserved for clients. Note as well the showdown over rates, with Powell eyeing inflation and stating "The level of tariff increases announced so far is significantly larger than anticipated" coupled with his warning over inflation being potentially more persistent down the road, and long-term inflation expectations drifting up (very much drifting up, with the consumer expecting a return to early 1980s conditions).

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