New Mexican Revolution

Mexico's Senate now has passed the historic reform of its energy and power sectors which will be open to private and foreign investment for the first time in nearly 80 years. The President is expected to imminently sign it into law. Much now depends on the implementation and regulations which will be politically fraught with pressures from Pemex and its powerful unions favoring the status quo. But symbolically, Mexico is now part of the world oil business. This is a new Mexican revolution. We own 3 stocks to benefit.

More from Ireland, Switzerland, France, Canada,, Britain, Jordan, Russia, Israel, Mexico, and Norway today. Two new stock picks and two company reports as well.

*Our Mexicans are a closed-end fund, Mexican Equity & Income, cpi giant Mexichem, and REIT Fibra Uno (FBASF; half sold).

*One reason I stick with Liberty Global Media despite the heavy debt load and other risks is that it may solve my problems in London computer work. Virgin Fibre, the British arm of LBTYA, is unrolling fiber-optic broadband at 120 megabytes across East London and it will soon reach the Isle of Dogs where we hang out. We will get faster Internet than BT can provide on its copper lines and Tivo service.

*Canada's CI Financial surprised on the upside with Q2 profits ahead by 23% from prior year, at C$127.8 mn or 45 loony cents/sh. It closed the quarter with C$99.9 bn in assets under management, up 22% y/o/y. It raised its dividend 11% to 29.5 loony cents. It cuts its debt from prior year by 44% to C$252.6 mn. Its return on equity is nearly 26%. We stumbled into the PIFAF for misinformation (we thought it would be taken over by Bank of Nova Scotia) but got lucky.

*Coca Cola Hellenic reported fizzy numbers yesterday but the bottler stock remained flat because of profit warnings on potential lower consumer spending in its key markets of Ukraine and Russia where unemployment is up and income down. While incorporated now in Zug, Switzerland, CCH is almost certain to become a target of new Russian import bans because its principal shareholders are from Cyprus, in the EU, and Atlanta, in the USA. It earns over 20% of its profits in Russia. It rep[orted Q2 net up 6% and H1 net up 8% thanks to better profit margins, while sales fell short of forecasts. The stock fell over 5% yesterday over lower sales than forecast. which were hit by currency changes and disrupted markets. It has cancelled its ADR and now trades as 191 223 106, its cusip pending conversion to UK shares.

*Another sufferer in London is Raven Rus whose shares have fallen to 67.25 pence in AIM trading. RUS is an operator of Russian storage and shipping facilities for mostly foreign luxury goods companies.

*Yet another sufferer from the Russia food import ban is Marine Harvest, the Norwegian salmon farm-fishery group which fell 10% yesterday. Povidentially, I sold half my stake on Monday. Until this year, Russia was the biggest import market for Norwegian seafood including salmon in various forms, but since the Crimean takeover, its largest market is now Poland. Norway was specifically mentioned in the Putin ban statement alongside the EU, the US, and Canada so it is now banned. The likely impact will be to create a surplus at least in the short-term which will lower prices in other markets, notably western Europe and Britain, where there will be even more salmon meals offered by restaurants and more lox for noshers.

*We are adding two new holdings to the portfolio today. Both are large caps, on the basis of Mark Hulbert's observation that large caps are a better idea than small caps in the present over-priced market. He only found one foreign stock in his list of 10 buys based on the advice of 15-yr market beaters: Schlumberger Ltd., SLB, which we own.

*One new idea is quixotic, Veolia Environnement. VE is French and has just completed the destruction of 190 tonnes of Syrian chemical weapons and precursors by incineration at a UK facility in Marchwood, not far from London, on behalf of the British Ministry of Defense. But that is not why I want to buy VE.

Rather, it is my taste for water and sewage stocks which I think are a key component of future growth. VE is also in energy, developing a complex system to turn waste into energy by anerobic digestion in Wales. It is already in the waste business and now owns the former Dalkia jv internetional energy side, after the split with EdF which took over the French power side.

The company is very old and a successor of one of the dual 19th century French waterworks giants. It has low margins, low growth, and low or negative return on equity. It has huge sales of $36.7 bn, of which 47% are outside France but its profits are not up to scratch. The result is that it is scorned by institutional investors, although it does have some US supporters mainly because of its 5.8% yield.

The company is ripe for a shake-up and should appeal to a dissident. I hope one turns up. There are 550 mn shares out and VE has relatively high debt for a company in the clean-up business. It claims it does resource management but that is just a fancy name for delivering water, waste, and energy services.

*The other new share is an old one, Novartis, It should be bought at under $85. The Swiss drug firm is back in favor with me because the former appalling management has been changed and some better corporate governance put in place. It has a more normal yield of 3.25% but that is still appealing. The p/e ratio is 22x earnings, which Standard & Poor's justifies by saying it commands “a premium valuation because of its focused drug portfolio”, with cancer meds in the spotlight. As you know, it traded with GlaxoSmithKline, picking up the small oncology arm of the UK drugmaker in return for NVS's vaccine arm. Its most recent Q2 results saw sales up only 2% y/o/y. Its profits rose 15.6% in the last year whereas the drug stock average gain was 21.7%.l Most of this has to do with the Swiss franc and conservatism. In terms of return on equity, a key metric, NVS is ahead of the rest of the pharma pack.

NVS is an institutional favorite, with about 9% of its shares out in fund hands, and has low debt. It is rated a buy also by Thomson Reuters but Market Edge rates it “avoid”. Most analysts rate it hold.

*I opted for NVS after selling half my stake in Glaxo. GSK is down because of US moves against tax inversion mergers. UK brokers Charles Stanley noted that moving HQ was a reason to buy GSK but now that is not enough. It concluded that “it is too soon to buy GSK”. There is a race for the chairmanship going on now in the UK Establishment. The trial of the couple who spied on behalf of GSK opened in China today.

*Teva also fell due to threats from the first generic versions of its Copaxone multiple sclerosis drug applying for FDA approvals. This includes, among others, a version to be taken 3 a week (Teva's latest way to keep its blockbuster alive) from Dr Reddy's of India. We sold RDY. Teva plans to field its lawyers to stop the generics which became legal, maybe, when its patents ran out in May. But the new formulation and dosage RDY is trying out is supposedly covered till 2030.

*A happy drug stock is Hikma. HKMPY rose here in London to GBP 17.08, up 8% yesterday. It was upgraded by Citi and its TP raised to GMP 20. It is also a way to play the opening of Arab markets to global investors.

*Delays in Leviathan by operator Noble Energy hurt Delek Group. Israeli DGRLY also is suffering because of geopolitical strains with potential partners like Cyprus and Egypt after the Gaza horrors.

*Ituran was hit with a tax bill for 2010-2012 for allegedly over-deducting and manipulation of the timing of deductions, by Israeli tax authorities. The vendor of global tracking software for car rentals and truck fleets will appeal in Israeli courts. ITRN was advised by its auditor that it did not need to create provisions for the tax claims, so weak are they.

*Paddy Power plc fell yesterday despite another big institutional buy of its shares, by Parvusdam, a fund group, which upped its stake from ~3% to nearly 8.3% last week, distributed into 10 funds. Today Deutsche Bank cut its stake to under 3%, a bellwether institution compared to Parvus.

*Agrium declared a 75 cents (US) dividend yesterday after I filed my note on its Q2. A lady, Marianne Harris, became its 12th board member.

Fund notes:

*New Ireland Fund remains very overweight Irish majors: 17.81% invested in Ryanair alone at the end of July. It is 10.5% in Arzyta, the Swiss agro and seed firm, which is in trouble because of Ukrainian farmers being too busy to plant; 12.4% in Kerry Group, maker of dairy products in the Auld Sod; and 8.3% in CRH which turns out aggregates. It hold a few new things, 4.9% in Bank of Ireland and 4.4% in Irish Residential Properties, a REIT. PDYPF accounts for barely over 2% of the holdings. IRL

*Canadian General, CGRIF, closed July with NAV totaling C$28.27 per share, while they traded at C$19.79, an amazing discount. It is much more diversified. The largest holdings were: Dollarama, 4.4%; Canadian Pacific Rail and Enbridge, both 3.6%; Bank of Montreal 3%; Element Financial and Royal Bank of Canada, both 2.7%; Methanex and Air Canada both at 2.6%; Home Capital 2.5%and Stantec 2.3%. It is managed by Vanessa Morgan, who likes to spread her risks. Me too.

Disclosure: None

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