Saturday, September 2, 2023 6:15 AM EDT
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A higher-than-consensus inflation print in Hungary could trigger a sharp market reaction, especially after the hawkish comments at the central bank's August rate-setting meeting.
Hungarian inflation in focus amid busy data week
We have a very busy week ahead in Hungary. First of all, the first batch of hard data for July should reinforce our view that the Hungarian economy is not out of the woods yet. We expect both retail sales and industrial production to remain well below last year's levels.
Perhaps the most important data release will come on Friday when the Statistical Office will announce the inflation rate for August. We have made a last-minute change based on big data and anecdotal evidence. We see a significant rise in the month-on-month inflation print as the removal of food price caps may have a bigger pro-inflationary impact than we initially thought. Against this backdrop, food, fuel, and services will be responsible for the rise in monthly inflation. However, with a favorable base effect, the year-on-year figure is expected to show continued disinflation. A higher-than-consensus inflation print could trigger a sharp market reaction, especially after the hawkish comments at the central bank's August rate-setting meeting.
We expect the trade balance to remain in surplus in July, while the fiscal situation could improve in August with better revenues thanks to buoyant tourism (partly related to the World Athletics Championships in Budapest).
Key events next week
Image Source: Refinitiv, ING
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Disclaimer: This publication has been prepared by the Economic and Financial Analysis Division of ING Bank N.V. (“ING”) solely for information purposes without regard to any ...
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