Update: Greek banks will be closed Monday, with limits on customers’ ability to withdraw funds. This came after the European Central Bank refused to provide more liquidity to Greek banks. Look for a Grexit and new currency this coming week.

Alexis Tsipras has a strong hand at the bargaining table, I wrote a few days ago. I did not say he would play his hand well. He has announced that Greek citizens will vote on July 5 whether to accept the foreign creditors’ proposals.

Tuesday, June 30, though, Greece has to make a €1.5 billion debt payment. If they don’t, without having forbearance in place, then Greece is in default.

There are reports of lines at ATMs across Greece. I have relied on Twitter to get current reports, and the general tone is that there are lines at 3:00 a.m. local time. However, it’s Friday night/Saturday morning, and the Greeks don’t start dancing until midnight. Perhaps it’s not a bank run but just a few more late night revelers than usual. The photographs posted show orderly lines, with no signs of panic.

Greek banks have had serious withdrawals of euros by their customers. One pundit said last week that it wasn’t a bank run, but more like a jog. The European Central Bank has provided Greek banks with short-term liquidity. If the ECB fears a Grexit, then the liquidity will stop. A Grexit would probably mean that the Greece governments tells its banks not to bother repaying the ECB anytime soon, so the ECB won’t send money down to Athens if that’s going to happen.

For Europeans, this is likely to be a small setback in economic progress. It’s not good news, but not bad enough to sink the European Union. For Americans and other businesses outside the Continent, look for nervous financial markets for a few weeks and then a return to casual confidence.