Global Trade Grinds To A Crawl

At the start of this month, those who contend that depression-level readings on the Baltic Dry are no longer very meaningful because at this juncture, the index simply shows the extent to which the industry is oversupplied, got a rude awakening when Soren Skou, the CEO of the company (Maersk) that handles nearly a fifth of global seaborne freight, decided to ruin everyone’s day by daring to suggest that in fact, global growth is rather abysmal and will likely continue to depress demand the world over. Worse, Skou went as far as saying that the days of 10% container growth for his industry are probably gone forever and yet despite it all, he’s buying more ships in what FT says is an effort to “help the company maintain its market leadership position,” which is of course just a nice way of saying that now many be a good time to eliminate the competition. As an aside, Skou also didn’t seem to share Richard Fisher’s assessment of the US as an “epicenter” of growth, saying America was “good but not great,” suggesting that as Rick Santelli told Fisher, it’s easy to score at the upper end of the range on a scale of 1-10 when a “1” basically equates to a deflationary death spiral and “10” just means something akin to not-collapsing. 

Here’s how we summed up the situation at the time: 

And yet the biggest paradox, or perhaps most logical outcome, of all this is that just as margins are about to be squeezed across the entire global supply chain, the healthier companies are now rushing to do what the oil driller are doing, and overproduce, in the process pushing prices even lower in hopes of putting marginal companies, and those which don't have access to cheap and easy funds, out of business. Call it the Amazon effect, only here one is dealing with net debt leverage of 3x, 4x or higher.

So with global demand lower as a result of slowing trade, and with Maersk about to boost ship supply even more, the result will be an even more aggressive drop in cargo and haulage prices as the deflationary wave hits yet another industry, in the process forcing seaborne transportation to be the latest to succumb to deflation, which for the highly levered sector means even more defaults are imminent now that China no longer is pumping nearly $4 trilion in total new credit every year. 

1 2
View single page >> |

Copyright ©2009-2015 ZeroHedge.com/ABC Media, LTD; All Rights Reserved. Zero Hedge is intended for Mature Audiences. Familiarize yourself with our legal and use policies every time you engage ...

more
How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience. Users' ratings are only visible to themselves.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.
Moon Kil Woong 5 years ago Contributor's comment

A hallmark of a nasty crash is slow International trade.

Tyler is right that the issue on oil is the lack of growing demand to keep up with the production. It will get worse.