EUR/USD: Weekly Forecast November 26 - December 2

The EUR/USD went into the weekend within sight of mid-term highs. Early on Tuesday of last week the EUR/USD moved around the 1.09670 vicinity for a solid duration, but by late in the day a selloff started to occur and a low for the week was made on Wednesday near the 1.08525 ratio.



Speculators should understand trading volume from Wednesday until the end of last week was affected by U.S financial institutions not participating in Forex, this as the U.S Thanksgiving holiday was celebrated and a long weekend ensued.

However, importantly the high made in the EUR/USD on Tuesday of last week is noteworthy because it hit values last seen in the second week of August. Yes, the EUR/USD then started to incrementally selloff and hit a low on Wednesday, but the ability of the currency pair to climb higher as light trading took over shows that behavioral sentiment likely believes the EUR/USD had been oversold. Going into this week of trading the EUR/USD is actually within sight of last week’s high. The current price of 1.09328 also remains within sight of higher mid-term values and may cause speculators to consider buying positions.


Full Volume will be Seen Soon in the EUR/USD

Forex trading will quickly return to full transactional volumes on Monday, and by Tuesday the broad markets will have had a chance to exhibit where behavioral sentiment is leaning. The broad markets have been rather risk friendly the past handful of weeks and the question is if momentum will continue to build. The USD has gotten weaker in Forex and the EUR/USD has certainly been able to demonstrate a solid burst of momentum.

Fundamental traders should note that U.S jobs numbers will not be published this week on the 1st of December; they will only be published on the 8th. And in mid-December the U.S Federal Reserve will release its FOMC Statement. However, early this week plenty of Fed officials will be speaking at a host of events this coming Tuesday and they will certainly want to be heard. If rather neutral rhetoric is heard this could spark more buying within the EUR/USD.


Technical Charts and Behavioral Sentiment Correlations in EUR/USD

On the 1st of November the EUR/USD was trading near the 1.05200 level and has shown a rather steady increase in value since then as financial institutions clearly have shown they believed the currency pair was oversold. Behavioral sentiment in the broad markets has also developed rather strong risk appetite momentum. Certainly reversals lower could happen in the short-term and there is always a change that risk adverse selling could re-emerge. However, if financial markets continue to show a taste for equity indices and U.S Treasury yields remain tame; this could also signal additional ground upwards in the EUR/USD could develop.

  • Day traders must remember to use risk management carefully and not get overly ambitious in the EUR/USD with ‘blind’ buying positions.
  • Reversals lower are part of Forex and the EUR/USD will see some slight selloffs, the currency pair even if it is bullish will not produce a one way ride upwards, meaning leverage has to be used conservatively and stop loss orders are encouraged to protect speculators without deep pockets.


EUR/USD Weekly Outlook:

Speculative price range for EUR/USD is 1.08290 to 1.10470

The notion that highs were seen early last week in the EUR/USD and produced a sudden selloff one day later is worth consideration. This bullish trading took place early in the week as optimism continued to build and then selling took place as many traders likely cashed out quick profits and braced for the U.S holiday. This is only an interpretation of the EUR/USD marketplace through my perspective, but the fact the currency pair incrementally climbed after the lows on Wednesday could show that buying sentiment remains intact.

Bullish traders may get tested early this week, but if the EUR/USD sustains the 1.09000 to 1.08800 price range as support, this could ignite more buying sentiment to emerge. Tuesday’s parade of speeches coming from U.S Fed officials will affect Forex and the EUR/USD.  The Fed has had a habit of telling the market what it is going to do a couple of weeks before its monthly FOMC decisions, and this Tuesday could prove to be another demonstration.



More By This Author:

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