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My previous EUR/USD currency pair signal on Dec. 27, 2023 was not triggered.

Today’s EUR/USD Signals

Risk: 0.75%. I believe trades must be taken between 8 AM and 5 PM, London time, today.

Short Trade Ideas

• Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0980, $1.0998, or $1.1030.
• Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 50 pips in profit, and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Long Trade Ideas

• Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0930, $1.0901, or $1.0848.
• Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

(Click on image to enlarge)

EUR/USD Analysis

In my previous analysis of the EUR/USD currency pair almost two weeks ago, I wrote that the environment was bullish for both fundamental and technical reasons. The US dollar was reaching multi-month lows on an increasingly firm market expectation that the Fed will begin cutting interest rates in March 2024. The European Central Bank’s policy was seen as relatively hawkish.

Technically, the price had made a breakout above $1.1000 to new four-month highs.

This bullish picture has changed, as we saw the big risk-on rally which was manifested bullishly in this currency pair peak and then decline sharply, driving the price down from its recent highs. However, recent days have seen consolidation, as can be seen in the price chart below, with the price seeming to find support in the $1.0900 area after printing a double bottom at that level. It is obvious that there is strong resistance confluent with the big round number at $1.1000.

I think with the bullish bounce witnessed a few hours ago at the higher support level of $1.0930, we are likely to see an up-day here today. There may still be time to enter long as trading gets underway for a swing trade if the price does not accelerate too quickly.

Bulls should be cautious of the resistance levels near $1.1000, as this resistance is likely to hold today as it will probably be a quiet Monday without any major relevant economic data releases. If the price gets established below $1.0900 today, that will be a very bearish sign. There is nothing of high importance due today regarding either the euro or the US dollar.

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