The Euro is not especially strong, but there is a divergence between the European Central Bank’s policy which is more hawkish, and the Fed which is turning more dovish. 

Today’s EUR/USD Signals

Risk 0.75%.

Trades may only be entered before 5pm London time today. 

Short Trade Ideas

• Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.1056, $1.1078, or $1.1089.
• Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 50 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Long Trade Ideas

• Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.1001 or $1.0955.
• Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

EUR/USD Analysis

In my previous analysis of the EUR/USD currency pair on Thursday last week, I wrote that the price was constrained within a narrowing triangle pennant and it would have to make a breakout soon. This could be the catalyst for a major bullish breakout into long-term highs above $1.1000.

I was looking to go long here if we got a New York close above the resistance level at $1.1008.

This was a good call as we did get this breakout and the price has been rising slowly ever since. As the Asian session ends today, the price is making a new 4-month high just below $1.1050.

The environment is bullish for fundamental reasons also: the US Dollar is reaching multi-month lows and remains weak due to an increasingly firm market expectation that the Fed will begin cutting interest rates in March 2024. This helps fuel a wider risk-on rally, which is getting a tailwind due to it being the year-end season when bullish stock markets typically rally, which is also pushing the Dollar down.

The Euro is not especially strong, but there is a divergence between the European Central Bank’s policy which is more hawkish, and the Fed which is turning more dovish. This supports a continuing rise in the price of this currency pair.

I am bullish here and already in a trade from the breakout above $1.1000. This pair likes to make retracements, but I think a long trade from a suitable entry point such as a bounce at a key support level would be a good opportunity.

Bulls might want to look at the price chart below and note that the price may also be held for a while by the upper trend line of the bullish flag formation.

(Click on image to enlarge)

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