Currency Speculators Drop Their Euro Bets To 43-Week Low On ECB Rates

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 12th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Australian Dollar & US Dollar Index

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just three out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Australian Dollar (4,004 contracts) with the US Dollar Index (2,712 contracts) and Bitcoin (193 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-23,151 contracts) with the Canadian Dollar (-16,920 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-4,013 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-1,577 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-756 contracts), Mexican Peso (-650 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-620 contracts) and the British Pound (-210 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Traders drop their Euro Bets to 43-Week Low on ECB Rates

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the dropping speculator positioning for the Euro Currency. Large speculative Euro positions dropped sharply this week by over -23,000 contracts and declined for a fourth consecutive week. Euro weekly positions have now decreased for the seventh time in the past eight weeks as well as in nine out of the past eleven weeks.

The Euro speculative standing still remains in a highly bullish level with the net position at a total of +113,080 contracts currently. However, the net position has now fallen by a total of -46,783 contracts in just the past four weeks and by a total of -65,752 contracts over the past eight weeks.

Overall, the Euro net speculator level has been above the +100,000 contract level for forty-six straight weeks and ascended to a 137-week high with a total net position of +187,089 contracts on May 16th – the most bullish point since a total of 188,116 contracts was reached on September 29th of 2020.

The European Central Bank has helped dampen the sentiment for the Euro currency as the bank raised its rate by 25 basis points to 4 percent on Thursday but signaled that there may be no more rate hikes on the docket. The ECB also revised their economic growth projections lower with the bank seeing just 0.7 percent growth in 2023. Following the announcement, many participants are expecting not to see further rate rises and even possible rate cuts if the economy continues to deteriorate.

The Euro currency spot price (versus the US Dollar) has been retreating mightily and this week declined for a ninth consecutive week. The EUR/USD exchange rate closed at 1.0735 on Friday with the low of the week hitting the lowest level since March. The EUR/USD had been as high as 1.1310 on July 18th before starting on its current nine-week downtrend.


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-12-2023
OI
OI-Index
Spec-Net
Spec-Index
Com-Net
COM-Index
Smalls-Net
Smalls-Index
EUR 743,759 60 113,080 67 -149,981 33 36,901 38
JPY 270,854 92 -98,713 11 106,644 88 -7,931 37
AUD 256,219 100 -79,533 11 94,990 90 -15,457 15
MXN 235,720 50 66,871 80 -71,492 19 4,621 41
GBP 227,437 54 46,174 88 -51,168 17 4,994 68
CAD 217,080 74 -41,883 15 49,275 90 -7,392 6
NZD 67,487 100 -14,620 14 17,257 87 -2,637 19
CHF 49,945 70 -9,338 31 12,351 62 -3,013 50
USD Index 40,982 37 6,071 35 -7,727 63 1,656 26
BRL 34,969 19 13,177 53 -15,160 46 1,983 53
RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24
Bitcoin 15,423 73 2,232 100 -2,543 0 311 20

 


Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & British Pound

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Bitcoin (100 percent) and the British Pound (88 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Mexican Peso (80 percent), EuroFX (67 percent) and the Brazilian Real (53 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Australian Dollar (11 percent), the Japanese Yen (11 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (14 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (15 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (35.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (30.5 percent)
EuroFX (67.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (77.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (87.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (88.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (11.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (12.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (30.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (41.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (15.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (31.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (11.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (7.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (14.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (15.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (80.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (80.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (52.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (53.5 percent)
Bitcoin (100.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (97.1 percent)

 

Bitcoin & US Dollar Index top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (42 percent) and the US Dollar Index (5 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies.

The Canadian Dollar (-45 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the New Zealand Dollar (-44 percent), Brazilian Real (-26 percent) and the Australian Dollar (-26 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (4.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-4.5 percent)
EuroFX (-24.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-17.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-2.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-8.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (-11.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-11.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (-1.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (8.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-45.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-28.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (-25.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-30.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-43.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-35.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (-13.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-12.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (-25.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-22.9 percent)
Bitcoin (41.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (40.4 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT Chart

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 6,071 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,712 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,359 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 61.4 19.3 11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.5 38.1 7.0
– Net Position: 6,071 -7,727 1,656
– Gross Longs: 25,145 7,906 4,510
– Gross Shorts: 19,074 15,633 2,854
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.5 to 1 1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 35.1 63.5 25.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.9 -6.6 14.7

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT Chart

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 113,080 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -23,151 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 136,231 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.6 55.5 12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.4 75.7 7.5
– Net Position: 113,080 -149,981 36,901
– Gross Longs: 212,376 412,967 92,784
– Gross Shorts: 99,296 562,948 55,883
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 67.4 33.3 37.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -24.7 26.7 -20.1

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT Chart

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 46,174 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -210 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,384 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 42.8 35.4 14.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.5 57.9 11.9
– Net Position: 46,174 -51,168 4,994
– Gross Longs: 97,365 80,441 32,133
– Gross Shorts: 51,191 131,609 27,139
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 87.8 17.0 67.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.4 8.7 -23.9

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT Chart

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -98,713 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,577 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -97,136 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.1 67.8 13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 50.6 28.4 16.2
– Net Position: -98,713 106,644 -7,931
– Gross Longs: 38,247 183,589 36,043
– Gross Shorts: 136,960 76,945 43,974
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.4 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 11.4 87.7 37.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -11.6 11.4 -7.8

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT Chart

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -9,338 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,013 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,325 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 18.0 52.1 27.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 36.7 27.4 33.6
– Net Position: -9,338 12,351 -3,013
– Gross Longs: 9,009 26,017 13,771
– Gross Shorts: 18,347 13,666 16,784
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.9 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 30.9 62.0 50.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.6 14.7 -27.2

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT Chart

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -41,883 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -16,920 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,963 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 18.6 60.8 14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.9 38.1 18.0
– Net Position: -41,883 49,275 -7,392
– Gross Longs: 40,298 131,976 31,767
– Gross Shorts: 82,181 82,701 39,159
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 15.5 89.7 6.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -45.0 49.4 -54.0

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT Chart

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -79,533 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,004 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -83,537 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 18.5 64.4 8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 49.5 27.3 14.7
– Net Position: -79,533 94,990 -15,457
– Gross Longs: 47,309 164,961 22,273
– Gross Shorts: 126,842 69,971 37,730
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.4 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 11.1 89.6 14.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -25.7 28.7 -24.3

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT Chart

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -14,620 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -620 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,000 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 21.9 62.8 5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 43.6 37.2 9.0
– Net Position: -14,620 17,257 -2,637
– Gross Longs: 14,797 42,395 3,420
– Gross Shorts: 29,417 25,138 6,057
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.7 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 14.0 87.2 18.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -43.9 45.2 -35.5

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT Chart

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 66,871 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -650 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,521 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 80.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 39.5 52.4 3.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.1 82.8 1.1
– Net Position: 66,871 -71,492 4,621
– Gross Longs: 93,022 123,575 7,268
– Gross Shorts: 26,151 195,067 2,647
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 80.0 18.7 40.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.2 12.8 0.5

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT Chart

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 13,177 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -756 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,933 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 56.3 33.1 9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.6 76.4 3.8
– Net Position: 13,177 -15,160 1,983
– Gross Longs: 19,696 11,568 3,305
– Gross Shorts: 6,519 26,728 1,322
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 52.6 46.0 52.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -25.6 21.6 24.1

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT Chart

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 2,232 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 193 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,039 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.1 0.8 7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 62.6 17.2 5.3
– Net Position: 2,232 -2,543 311
– Gross Longs: 11,893 117 1,134
– Gross Shorts: 9,661 2,660 823
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.0 to 1 1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 20.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 41.7 -66.9 -7.1

 


*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.


More By This Author:

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Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result ...

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