Currency Speculators Continued To Trim Their Japanese Yen Bearish Positions

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 28th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen & Australian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (12,370 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (3,106 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (2,173 contracts), the Swiss Franc (1,223 contracts), EuroFX (183 contracts) and Bitcoin (345 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-3,586 contracts) with the Mexican Peso (-2,251 contracts), Brazilian Real (-1,374 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-1,425 contracts) and the Canadian Dollar (-4 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Japanese Yen Speculators continued to trim their bearish positions

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the improvement of the speculator’s positioning for the Japanese yen. Large speculative Japanese yen positions gained this week by over +12,000 net contracts and rose for a third straight week with a total change of +21,328 contracts over that 3-week period.

The yen, overall, has been in a continuous bearish standing for the past 107 weeks, dating back to March of 2021. The height of the yen bearish positions (eleven straight weeks over -90,000 contracts) was in April and May of 2022 while the bearish level reached a position of -102,618 contracts as recently as October 25th. Since that recent low, the yen positioning has improved markedly with positions falling to as low as -20,060 contracts on January 31st. This week’s gain marks the best in the past fifteen weeks and brings the overall net position (currently at -53,975 contracts) to the least bearish level since February 21st.

The yen spot price has been on the move since dropping to a multi-decade low against the US Dollar in October. The USDJPY currency pair had surged as high as 151.94 on October 17th but has now come back down to the 130s level with the currency pair closing out this week at 132.83.


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Mar-28-2023
OI
OI-Index
Spec-Net
Spec-Index
Com-Net
COM-Index
Smalls-Net
Smalls-Index
EUR 732,506 68 145,025 74 -191,248 26 46,223 53
MXN 233,669 49 49,279 86 -53,828 15 4,549 85
GBP 199,868 37 -24,084 48 22,577 49 1,507 61
CAD 176,559 48 -56,825 0 63,417 99 -6,592 8
JPY 169,473 31 -53,975 36 57,562 64 -3,587 46
AUD 151,238 50 -35,353 52 45,830 53 -10,477 27
BRL 42,663 30 23,483 66 -30,522 27 7,039 100
CHF 34,856 17 -6,074 39 10,733 63 -4,659 42
NZD 31,981 13 -6,610 36 6,553 62 57 52
USD Index 31,128 26 12,719 46 -15,085 52 2,366 42
RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24
Bitcoin 14,409 69 -276 72 -271 0 547 25

 


Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (86 percent) and the EuroFX (74 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Bitcoin (72 percent), Brazilian Real (66 percent) and the Australian Dollar (52 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the New Zealand Dollar (36 percent), Japanese Yen (36 percent) and the Swiss Franc (39 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (46.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (48.5 percent)
EuroFX (74.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (74.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (48.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (51.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (35.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (28.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (38.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (35.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (0.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (0.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (52.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (49.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (35.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (29.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (85.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (87.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (65.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (67.4 percent)
Bitcoin (72.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (66.1 percent)

 

Mexican Peso & Bitcoin top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Mexican Peso (67 percent) and the Bitcoin (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Swiss Franc (4 percent) and the US Dollar Index (1 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The New Zealand Dollar (-42 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-20 percent), Japanese Yen (-16 percent) and the Brazilian Real (-11 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (1.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (3.1 percent)
EuroFX (-7.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-7.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-3.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-5.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (-16.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-22.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (3.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-2.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-20.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-22.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (-6.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-9.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-42.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-53.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (67.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (72.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (-10.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-10.8 percent)
Bitcoin (8.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (9.7 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT Chart

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 12,719 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,425 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,144 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 78.9 1.8 15.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 38.0 50.2 7.6
– Net Position: 12,719 -15,085 2,366
– Gross Longs: 24,552 545 4,737
– Gross Shorts: 11,833 15,630 2,371
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.1 to 1 0.0 to 1 2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 46.1 51.8 42.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.2 1.7 -19.7

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT Chart

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 145,025 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 183 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 144,842 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.4 56.0 11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 10.6 82.2 5.4
– Net Position: 145,025 -191,248 46,223
– Gross Longs: 222,918 410,545 85,724
– Gross Shorts: 77,893 601,793 39,501
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.9 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 74.3 25.9 52.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.3 6.9 -2.6

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT Chart

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -24,084 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,586 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,498 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.0 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.2 66.6 13.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.2 55.3 12.4
– Net Position: -24,084 22,577 1,507
– Gross Longs: 28,355 133,149 26,264
– Gross Shorts: 52,439 110,572 24,757
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.2 to 1 1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 48.3 49.4 61.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.7 -7.8 30.9

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT Chart

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -53,975 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 12,370 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -66,345 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.7 77.9 14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.6 44.0 16.6
– Net Position: -53,975 57,562 -3,587
– Gross Longs: 9,717 132,070 24,593
– Gross Shorts: 63,692 74,508 28,180
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 35.6 63.7 46.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -16.1 10.6 8.8

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT Chart

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -6,074 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,223 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,297 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.4 57.0 29.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.8 26.2 42.6
– Net Position: -6,074 10,733 -4,659
– Gross Longs: 3,978 19,865 10,185
– Gross Shorts: 10,052 9,132 14,844
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.2 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 38.5 62.7 41.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 3.7 -2.2 -0.2

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT Chart

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -56,825 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,821 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.1 70.4 17.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 43.3 34.5 21.1
– Net Position: -56,825 63,417 -6,592
– Gross Longs: 19,672 124,285 30,744
– Gross Shorts: 76,497 60,868 37,336
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.0 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 99.3 8.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -20.2 18.4 -12.7

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT Chart

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -35,353 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,106 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,459 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.0 55.2 12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 52.3 24.9 19.7
– Net Position: -35,353 45,830 -10,477
– Gross Longs: 43,813 83,523 19,330
– Gross Shorts: 79,166 37,693 29,807
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 2.2 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 52.1 53.1 26.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.0 16.5 -38.2

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT Chart

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -6,610 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,173 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,783 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.4 58.3 10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 51.1 37.8 10.7
– Net Position: -6,610 6,553 57
– Gross Longs: 9,720 18,639 3,467
– Gross Shorts: 16,330 12,086 3,410
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.5 to 1 1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 35.7 61.9 52.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -42.3 39.6 -13.9

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT Chart

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 49,279 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,251 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,530 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.6 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 46.8 50.0 3.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.7 73.1 1.1
– Net Position: 49,279 -53,828 4,549
– Gross Longs: 109,417 116,939 7,079
– Gross Shorts: 60,138 170,767 2,530
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.8 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 85.9 14.8 84.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 67.4 -62.7 -7.5

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT Chart

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 23,483 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,374 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,857 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 60.9 19.3 19.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.8 90.8 3.3
– Net Position: 23,483 -30,522 7,039
– Gross Longs: 25,968 8,231 8,429
– Gross Shorts: 2,485 38,753 1,390
– Long to Short Ratio: 10.4 to 1 0.2 to 1 6.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 65.7 27.1 100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.8 3.5 45.0

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT Chart

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -276 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 345 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -621 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 77.5 1.8 10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 79.4 3.7 6.3
– Net Position: -276 -271 547
– Gross Longs: 11,168 263 1,449
– Gross Shorts: 11,444 534 902
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 72.1 47.0 25.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.8 -28.3 2.9

 


*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.


More By This Author:

Large Speculators Have Dropped Their Corn Bullish Bets To Near 130-Week Lows
Currency Speculators Drop Their Canadian Dollar Bets Fall To 218-Week Low
COT Bonds Speculators Boosting 2-Year Bond Bets After Record Low

Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment.Due to the level of risk and market volatility, ...

more
How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.

Comments