COT Metals Speculators Raise Their Silver Bets For Fifth Week To A 10-Week High
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Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday, April 11, and it shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Changes Led by Silver
The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week, as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts. Leading the gains for the metals was silver, with a rise of 2,435 contracts this week.
The main market with declines in speculator bets for the week was gold (-2,471 contracts), with platinum (-2,090 contracts), copper (-1,349 contracts), steel (-970 contracts), and palladium (-427 contracts) also experiencing lower bets on the week.
Silver Speculator Bets Rise for Fifth Week to 10-Week High
Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the continued bullishness for silver speculative positions. The large speculator position in silver futures climbed this week for a fifth straight week. Silver spec bets have now jumped by a total of +31,500 contracts over the past five weeks.
This recent speculator sentiment bump has taken the silver position from a total of -1,219 contracts on March 14 to a total of +23,718 contracts this week, leveling at the most bullish standing for silver in ten weeks.
The silver futures price has continued to enjoy a bullish run and has now increased for five consecutive weeks. The futures price has risen by over 20% in these past five weeks, and touched the highest level since last April before closing this week at almost $25.50.
Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
|
Apr-11-2023
|
OI
|
OI-Index
|
Spec-Net
|
Spec-Index
|
Com-Net
|
COM-Index
|
Smalls-Net
|
Smalls-Index
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | 476,567 | 25 | 192,745 | 62 | -216,548 | 40 | 23,803 | 40 |
| Copper | 209,501 | 50 | -4,303 | 25 | -1,217 | 72 | 5,520 | 53 |
| Silver | 142,699 | 29 | 23,718 | 52 | -36,255 | 50 | 12,537 | 36 |
| Platinum | 60,115 | 41 | 13,333 | 46 | -18,511 | 55 | 5,178 | 37 |
| Palladium | 12,290 | 88 | -7,073 | 0 | 7,491 | 100 | -418 | 17 |
Strength Scores Led by Gold & Steel
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of speculator positions over a three-year range, from 0 to 100, where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that gold (62%) and steel (58%) were the leaders of the metals markets this week. On the downside, palladium (0.2%) held the lowest strength level and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20%).
Strength statistics:
- Gold (61.9%) vs. gold the previous week (63.0%).
- Silver (52.1%) vs. silver the previous week (48.6%).
- Copper (24.6%) vs. copper the previous week (25.8%).
- Platinum (46.4%) vs. platinum the previous week (51.2%).
- Palladium (0.2%) vs. palladium the previous week (4.2%).
- Steel (58.4%) vs. steel the previous week (61.2%).
Gold & Silver Top the Six-Week Strength Trends
COT Strength Score Trends (otherwise called move index, which calculates the six-week changes in strength scores) showed that gold (37%) and silver (34%) led the trends for metals over the past six weeks. Platinum (18.5%) is the next highest positive mover in terms of trends data. Palladium (-10%) led to the downside in terms of trend scores, with steel (-4%) following behind.
Move statistics:
- Gold (37.0%) vs. gold the previous week (38.8%).
- Silver (33.9%) vs. silver the previous week (16.2%).
- Copper (1.6%) vs. copper the previous week (-4.5%).
- Platinum (18.5%) vs. platinum the previous week (28.9%).
- Palladium (-9.7%) vs. palladium the previous week (-13.5%).
- Steel (-4.1%) vs. steel the previous week (0.2%).
Individual Markets - Gold Comex Futures
The gold Comex futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 192,745 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,471 contracts from the previous week, which had a total of 195,216 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.9%. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.3%, and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.6%.
| Gold Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| –% of Open Interest Longs: | 54.6 | 25.1 | 10.3 |
| –% of Open Interest Shorts: | 14.1 | 70.6 | 5.3 |
| – Net Position: | 192,745 | -216,548 | 23,803 |
| – Gross Longs: | 260,165 | 119,710 | 49,102 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 67,420 | 336,258 | 25,299 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 3.9 to 1 | 0.4 to 1 | 1.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 61.9 | 40.3 | 39.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 37.0 | -34.4 | 12.3 |
Silver Comex Futures
The silver Comex futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 23,718 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,435 contracts from the previous week, which had a total of 21,283 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.1%. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 50.0%, and the small traders are Bearish with a score of 36.0%.
| Silver Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| –% of Open Interest Longs: | 39.0 | 33.4 | 17.7 |
| –% of Open Interest Shorts: | 22.3 | 58.8 | 8.9 |
| – Net Position: | 23,718 | -36,255 | 12,537 |
| – Gross Longs: | 55,583 | 47,629 | 25,218 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 31,865 | 83,884 | 12,681 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.7 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 2.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 52.1 | 50.0 | 36.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 33.9 | -28.0 | -3.7 |
Copper Grade #1 Futures
The copper Grade #1 futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -4,303 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,349 contracts from the previous week, which had a total of -2,954 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.6%. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.4%, and the small traders are Bullish with a score of 53.3%.
| Copper Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| –% of Open Interest Longs: | 26.8 | 43.6 | 9.0 |
| –% of Open Interest Shorts: | 28.8 | 44.2 | 6.3 |
| – Net Position: | -4,303 | -1,217 | 5,520 |
| – Gross Longs: | 56,063 | 91,399 | 18,793 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 60,366 | 92,616 | 13,273 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.9 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 24.6 | 72.4 | 53.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 1.6 | -1.0 | -3.5 |
Platinum Futures
The platinum futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 13,333 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,090 contracts from the previous week, which had a total of 15,423 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.4%. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.2%, and the small traders are Bearish with a score of 37.4%.
| Platinum Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| –% of Open Interest Longs: | 49.2 | 34.5 | 12.6 |
| –% of Open Interest Shorts: | 27.0 | 65.3 | 4.0 |
| – Net Position: | 13,333 | -18,511 | 5,178 |
| – Gross Longs: | 29,570 | 20,768 | 7,569 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 16,237 | 39,279 | 2,391 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.8 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 3.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 46.4 | 55.2 | 37.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 18.5 | -17.9 | 8.0 |
Palladium Futures
The palladium futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -7,073 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -427 contracts from the previous week, which had a total of -6,646 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.2%. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0%, and the small traders are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6%.
| Palladium Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| –% of Open Interest Longs: | 11.9 | 71.7 | 10.7 |
| –% of Open Interest Shorts: | 69.5 | 10.8 | 14.1 |
| – Net Position: | -7,073 | 7,491 | -418 |
| – Gross Longs: | 1,463 | 8,814 | 1,319 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 8,536 | 1,323 | 1,737 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.2 to 1 | 6.7 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 0.2 | 100.0 | 16.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -9.7 | 8.2 | 4.2 |
Steel Futures Futures
The steel futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -5,108 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -970 contracts from the previous week, which had a total of -4,138 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.4%. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.4%, and the small traders are Bearish with a score of 39.8%.
| Steel Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| –% of Open Interest Longs: | 12.0 | 76.4 | 1.1 |
| –% of Open Interest Shorts: | 29.8 | 59.1 | 0.6 |
| – Net Position: | -5,108 | 4,951 | 157 |
| – Gross Longs: | 3,428 | 21,857 | 317 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 8,536 | 16,906 | 160 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.4 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 | 2.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 58.4 | 41.4 | 39.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -4.1 | 4.4 | -10.3 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is three days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits), and non-reportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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