COT Metals Speculators Push Platinum Bullish Bets To 28-Week High

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Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday, Oct. 18, and it shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.


Platinum Tops Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT precious metals speculator bets were lower this week as just one out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week, while four markets had lower contracts.

Leading the precious metals markets was platinum (2,566 contracts), as it experienced a positive week. The metals markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were gold (-17,464 contracts), silver (-6,122 contracts), copper (-4,403 contracts), and palladium (-455 contracts), as they all registered lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT Metals data this week was the speculator positions in platinum. The large speculative positions rose this week for a third straight week and for the fifth time in the past six weeks. Over the past six weeks, speculative bets have improved by a total of +15,245 contracts. This recent bullishness has brought the overall net standing to its highest level in the past twenty-eight weeks, dating back to April 5 of this year.

Platinum prices have been on the rise as well with a monthly gain above 8% so far in October. Platinum could also benefit going forward from an interesting tax loophole in India that has pushed platinum imports to a record high of approximately 27 tons this September compared to a little over 1 ton last September, according to Reuters.

Indian gold refiners are importing platinum mixed with gold to offset new higher taxes on gold. A gold/platinum mix allows importers to classify the import as a platinum alloy and pay a lower tax rate on it.

Platinum futures closed this week over 4% higher near the $933 level yet below the $940 level, which has acted as a resistance barrier over the past five weeks.


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

WTI Crude 1,454,431 0 251,545 11 -273,757 90 22,212 37
Corn 1,419,087 22 312,419 70 -249,255 36 -63,164 7
Natural Gas 963,792 3 -154,734 32 126,760 71 27,974 46
Soybeans 714,532 30 54,683 30 -30,595 77 -24,088 30
Sugar 711,664 4 126,412 63 -164,671 37 38,259 55
Gold 434,701 1 76,956 8 -90,030 91 13,074 12
Wheat 309,429 10 -3,541 14 10,534 75 -6,993 74
Heating Oil 283,702 29 24,555 79 -44,031 24 19,476 66
Coffee 196,729 9 19,223 53 -21,605 52 2,382 24
Copper 178,730 17 -20,302 20 19,696 82 606 29
Brent 163,296 11 -41,847 41 38,681 58 3,166 52
Silver 136,055 9 1,267 15 -9,085 87 7,818 8
Platinum 53,728 11 8,494 21 -11,632 81 3,138 10
Palladium 6,805 4 -1,209 16 1,444 82 -235 30


Strength Scores Led by Platinum and Copper

Strength scores (which are a measure of the three-year range of speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that platinum (20.5%) and copper (20.2%) lead the metals this week, just above the bearish extreme level.

On the downside, gold (8.2%) continued to be at the lowest strength level, followed by silver (15.5%) and palladium (16.4%). All three markets have been in extreme bearish levels below 20%.

Strength statistics:

  • Gold (8.2%) vs. gold the previous week (14.0%).
  • Silver (15.5%) vs. silver the previous week (22.3%).
  • Copper (20.2%) vs. copper the previous week (23.7%).
  • Platinum (20.5%) vs. platinum the previous week (17.1%).
  • Palladium (16.4%) vs. palladium the previous week (19.1%).


Platinum Leads the Strength Trend Scores

Strength score trends (also called the move index, which calculates the six-week changes in strength scores) show that platinum (20.5%) has been the leader of the market trends for the past six weeks. Silver (15.5%), copper (2.9%), and palladium (2.3%) have also served as positive movers in the latest trends data.

However, gold (-8.9%) has served as the leader for downside trends, as it has been the only negative mover in the recent data.

Move statistics:

  • Gold (-8.9%) vs. gold the previous week (-7.7%).
  • Silver (15.5%) vs. silver the previous week (17.3%).
  • Copper (2.9%) vs. copper the previous week (5.9%).
  • Platinum (20.5%) vs. platinum the previous week (15.2%).
  • Palladium (2.3%) vs. palladium the previous week (2.2%).


Individual Markets - Gold Comex Futures

Gold Futures COT Chart

The gold Comex futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 76,956 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -17,464 contracts from the previous week, which had a total of 94,420 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2%. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4% and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4%.

Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
–% of Open Interest Longs: 48.5 26.5 9.0
–% of Open Interest Shorts: 30.8 47.2 6.0
– Net Position: 76,956 -90,030 13,074
– Gross Longs: 210,890 115,073 39,286
– Gross Shorts: 133,934 205,103 26,212
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.6 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 8.2 91.4 12.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.9 7.4 7.2


Silver Comex Futures

Silver Futures COT Chart

The silver Comex futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 1,267 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,122 contracts from the previous week, which had a total of 7,389 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5%. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.6% and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2%.

Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
–% of Open Interest Longs: 37.9 37.5 16.2
–% of Open Interest Shorts: 37.0 44.1 10.4
– Net Position: 1,267 -9,085 7,818
– Gross Longs: 51,541 50,956 22,014
– Gross Shorts: 50,274 60,041 14,196
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 15.5 86.6 8.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 15.5 -13.4 0.4


Copper Grade #1 Futures

Copper Futures COT Chart

The copper Grade #1 futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -20,302 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,403 contracts from the previous week, which had a total of -15,899 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.2%. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3% and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.8%.

Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
–% of Open Interest Longs: 27.6 46.4 8.5
–% of Open Interest Shorts: 39.0 35.4 8.1
– Net Position: -20,302 19,696 606
– Gross Longs: 49,335 82,890 15,118
– Gross Shorts: 69,637 63,194 14,512
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 20.2 82.3 28.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.9 -5.5 19.9


Platinum Futures

Platinum Futures COT Chart

The platinum futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 8,494 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,566 contracts from the previous week, which had a total of 5,928 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.5%. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.4% and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3%.

Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
–% of Open Interest Longs: 49.1 36.1 12.0
–% of Open Interest Shorts: 33.3 57.8 6.1
– Net Position: 8,494 -11,632 3,138
– Gross Longs: 26,385 19,406 6,436
– Gross Shorts: 17,891 31,038 3,298
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 20.5 81.4 10.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 20.5 -18.6 -6.1


Palladium Futures

Palladium Futures COT Chart

The palladium futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,209 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -455 contracts from the previous week, which had a total of -754 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4%. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3% and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.3%.

Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
–% of Open Interest Longs: 26.3 58.3 14.3
–% of Open Interest Shorts: 44.1 37.1 17.8
– Net Position: -1,209 1,444 -235
– Gross Longs: 1,793 3,968 975
– Gross Shorts: 3,002 2,524 1,210
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 16.4 82.3 30.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.3 -4.0 16.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter.

COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is three days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits), and non-reportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.


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