COT Metals Speculators Boost Their Gold Bullish Bets To 13-Week High
Image Source: Pixabay
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday, Nov. 15, and it shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Changes Led by Gold
The COT precious metals speculator bets were higher this week, as all five of the metals markets we cover had higher positioning. Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was gold (43,931 contracts), with copper (6,908 contracts), silver (4,604 contracts), platinum (3,095 contracts), and palladium (1,338 contracts) also experiencing a positive week.
Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the rebound of the gold speculator bets. The large speculator position for gold jumped by over +40,000 contracts this week following a gain by over +17,000 contracts.
This week’s rise marked the highest weekly gain in 143 weeks, and the renewed speculator sentiment has pushed the overall gold net position back above the +100,000 contract level for the first time since early September. The gold speculator net standing is now at the highest level since Aug. 16, when the net contracts was +141,164 contracts.
Gold prices have had a bit of an upswing since Nov. 4. The futures price has also risen from the (Nov. 4) opening level of $1,631.00 to close out this week at the $1,754.40 threshold. Gold, also this week, touched its highest level since the middle of August just below $1,792.00 before retreating lower.
Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
|
Nov-15-2022
|
OI
|
OI-Index
|
Spec-Net
|
Spec-Index
|
Com-Net
|
COM-Index
|
Smalls-Net
|
Smalls-Index
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | 1,469,437 | 3 | 278,267 | 18 | -307,395 | 81 | 29,128 | 48 |
| Corn | 1,421,555 | 22 | 252,908 | 62 | -211,862 | 42 | -41,046 | 19 |
| Natural Gas | 978,425 | 6 | -152,114 | 33 | 120,830 | 69 | 31,284 | 54 |
| Sugar | 832,522 | 26 | 156,194 | 59 | -201,779 | 39 | 45,585 | 64 |
| Soybeans | 616,094 | 9 | 76,804 | 37 | -49,046 | 72 | -27,758 | 24 |
| Gold | 495,171 | 17 | 126,269 | 25 | -134,308 | 78 | 8,039 | 0 |
| Wheat | 350,091 | 27 | -22,481 | 0 | 29,310 | 100 | -6,829 | 75 |
| Heating Oil | 275,254 | 26 | 25,660 | 80 | -46,933 | 21 | 21,273 | 72 |
| Coffee | 191,743 | 6 | -14,154 | 0 | 11,840 | 100 | 2,314 | 32 |
| Copper | 168,962 | 9 | 9,821 | 44 | -13,583 | 56 | 3,762 | 47 |
| Silver | 141,623 | 14 | 17,607 | 34 | -29,424 | 67 | 11,817 | 27 |
| Brent | 139,080 | 4 | -25,194 | 69 | 20,782 | 28 | 4,412 | 69 |
| Platinum | 63,391 | 27 | 22,544 | 39 | -27,037 | 62 | 4,493 | 28 |
| Palladium | 8,793 | 14 | -1,072 | 17 | 1,231 | 81 | -159 | 32 |
Copper & Platinum Lead the Strength Scores
Strength scores (which are a measure of the three-year range of speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that copper (44.1%) and platinum (39.4%) lead the metals category.
Silver (33.5%) comes in as the next highest metals market in terms of strength scores. On the downside, palladium (17.5%) is at the lowest strength level currently, and is in a bearish extreme position with a score of under 20%.
Strength statistics:
- Gold (24.6%) vs. gold the previous week (10.0%).
- Silver (33.5%) vs. silver the previous week (28.4%).
- Copper (44.1%) vs. copper the previous week (38.6%).
- Platinum (39.4%) vs. platinum the previous week (35.2%).
- Palladium (17.5%) vs. palladium the previous week (9.7%).
Platinum Tops the Strength Trends
Strength score trends (or otherwise called the move index, which calculates the six-week changes in strength scores) showed that the platinum (25.9%) was the trend leader for the past six weeks. Copper (22.3%), gold (12.6%), and silver (9.8%) were also positive movers in the latest trends data. Palladium (-2.8%) leads the downside for the trend scores currently.
Move statistics:
- Gold (12.6%) vs. gold the previous week (10.0%).
- Silver (9.8%) vs. silver the previous week (13.5%).
- Copper (22.3%) vs. copper the previous week (24.4%).
- Platinum (25.9%) vs. platinum the previous week (25.9%).
- Palladium (-2.8%) vs. palladium the previous week (-9.3%).
Individual Markets - Gold Comex Futures
The gold Comex futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 126,269 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 43,931 contracts from the previous week, which had a total of 82,338 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.6%. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.7% and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0%.
|
Gold Futures Statistics |
SPECULATORS |
COMMERCIALS |
SMALL TRADERS |
|
–% of Open Interest Longs: |
45.9 |
27.3 |
7.5 |
|
–% of Open Interest Shorts: |
20.4 |
54.4 |
5.8 |
|
– Net Position: |
126,269 |
-134,308 |
8,039 |
|
– Gross Longs: |
227,282 |
135,035 |
36,973 |
|
– Gross Shorts: |
101,013 |
269,343 |
28,934 |
|
– Long to Short Ratio: |
2.3 to 1 |
0.5 to 1 |
1.3 to 1 |
|
NET POSITION TREND: |
|
|
|
|
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): |
24.6 |
77.7 |
0.0 |
|
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): |
Bearish |
Bullish |
Bearish-Extreme |
|
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: |
|
|
|
|
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: |
12.6 |
-11.7 |
-0.3 |
Silver Comex Futures
The silver Comex futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 17,607 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,604 contracts from the previous week, which had a total of 13,003 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.5%. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.4% and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.4%.
|
Silver Futures Statistics |
SPECULATORS |
COMMERCIALS |
SMALL TRADERS |
|
–% of Open Interest Longs: |
37.2 |
34.2 |
17.2 |
|
–% of Open Interest Shorts: |
24.8 |
54.9 |
8.9 |
|
– Net Position: |
17,607 |
-29,424 |
11,817 |
|
– Gross Longs: |
52,692 |
48,393 |
24,386 |
|
– Gross Shorts: |
35,085 |
77,817 |
12,569 |
|
– Long to Short Ratio: |
1.5 to 1 |
0.6 to 1 |
1.9 to 1 |
|
NET POSITION TREND: |
|
|
|
|
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): |
33.5 |
67.4 |
27.4 |
|
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): |
Bearish |
Bullish |
Bearish |
|
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: |
|
|
|
|
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: |
9.8 |
-11.2 |
14.0 |
Copper Grade #1 Futures
The copper Grade #1 futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 9,821 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,908 contracts from the previous week, which had a total of 2,913 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.1%. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.5% and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.0%.
|
Copper Futures Statistics |
SPECULATORS |
COMMERCIALS |
SMALL TRADERS |
|
–% of Open Interest Longs: |
35.9 |
36.5 |
10.3 |
|
–% of Open Interest Shorts: |
30.1 |
44.6 |
8.0 |
|
– Net Position: |
9,821 |
-13,583 |
3,762 |
|
– Gross Longs: |
60,730 |
61,693 |
17,332 |
|
– Gross Shorts: |
50,909 |
75,276 |
13,570 |
|
– Long to Short Ratio: |
1.2 to 1 |
0.8 to 1 |
1.3 to 1 |
|
NET POSITION TREND: |
|
|
|
|
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): |
44.1 |
56.5 |
47.0 |
|
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): |
Bearish |
Bullish |
Bearish |
|
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: |
|
|
|
|
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: |
22.3 |
-24.5 |
20.4 |
Platinum Futures
The platinum futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 22,544 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,095 contracts from the previous week, which had a total of 19,449 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4%. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.9% and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.3%.
|
Platinum Futures Statistics |
SPECULATORS |
COMMERCIALS |
SMALL TRADERS |
|
–% of Open Interest Longs: |
52.2 |
27.4 |
11.9 |
|
–% of Open Interest Shorts: |
16.6 |
70.1 |
4.8 |
|
– Net Position: |
22,544 |
-27,037 |
4,493 |
|
– Gross Longs: |
33,079 |
17,374 |
7,567 |
|
– Gross Shorts: |
10,535 |
44,411 |
3,074 |
|
– Long to Short Ratio: |
3.1 to 1 |
0.4 to 1 |
2.5 to 1 |
|
NET POSITION TREND: |
|
|
|
|
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): |
39.4 |
61.9 |
28.3 |
|
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): |
Bearish |
Bullish |
Bearish |
|
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: |
|
|
|
|
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: |
25.9 |
-25.1 |
8.5 |
Palladium Futures
The palladium futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,072 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,338 contracts from the previous week, which had a total of -2,410 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5%. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.1% and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.2%.
|
Palladium Futures Statistics |
SPECULATORS |
COMMERCIALS |
SMALL TRADERS |
|
–% of Open Interest Longs: |
22.7 |
51.3 |
13.2 |
|
–% of Open Interest Shorts: |
34.9 |
37.3 |
15.0 |
|
– Net Position: |
-1,072 |
1,231 |
-159 |
|
– Gross Longs: |
1,997 |
4,512 |
1,161 |
|
– Gross Shorts: |
3,069 |
3,281 |
1,320 |
|
– Long to Short Ratio: |
0.7 to 1 |
1.4 to 1 |
0.9 to 1 |
|
NET POSITION TREND: |
|
|
|
|
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): |
17.5 |
81.1 |
32.2 |
|
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): |
Bearish-Extreme |
Bullish-Extreme |
Bearish |
|
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: |
|
|
|
|
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: |
-2.8 |
5.0 |
-23.5 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter.
COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is three days old), and it shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits), and non-reportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
More By This Author:
Speculator Extremes: Soybean Meal, Wheat Lead Weekly COT Bullish & Bearish Positions
Mexican Peso & Euro Currency Speculators Sharply Boost Their Bullish Bets
Copper Speculators Trim Their Bearish Bets To 21-Week Low
Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment.Due to the level of risk and market volatility, ...
more
Comments
