US Dollar Index Speculator Positions

Large currency speculators lowered their bullish net positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 22,366 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday June 25th. This was a weekly decline of -6,183 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,549 net contracts.

This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position decreasing by -5,992 contracts (to a weekly total of 34,327 contracts) in addition to the gross bearish position which saw rose by 191 contracts for the week (to a total of 11,961 contracts).

Large currency speculators cut their bets of the US Dollar Index for the third time in the past four weeks and by the largest one-week decline since March. The overall trend for speculator bets has been steadily lower in recent months since reaching a high of +40,513 contracts on January 13th.

Individual Currencies Data this week:

In the other major currency contracts data, we saw just one substantial change (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the speculators category this week.

Canadian dollar positions rose sharply by over +23,000 net contracts this week. The CAD speculator position remains bearish but has improved for seven out of the past ten weeks and has gone from a standing of -49,162 contract on April 16th to -14,790 contracts this week. The current level is the least bearish point for CAD positions since December 18th.

Overall, the major currencies that saw improving speculator positions this week were the Japanese yen (6,418 weekly change in contracts), Canadian dollar (23,281 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (415 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week were the US dollar index (-6,183 weekly change in contracts), euro (-3,965 contracts), British pound sterling (-6,373 contracts), Swiss franc (-997 contracts), Australian dollar (-1,457 contracts) and the Mexican peso (-1,771 contracts).

Other Notables for the week:

Euro speculators increased bearish bets slightly this week after a large improvement last week (34,462 contracts) and four straight weeks of declining bearish bets. The euro position remains bearish but is about half of its most bearish level recently (-106,105 contracts on May 7th).

Japanese yen speculator positions continued to improve (get less bearish) this week for a second week. The current bearish standing for JPY is currently at just -10147 contracts and the least bearish level since June 12th of 2018 when the net position was in a small bullish position.

See the table and individual currency charts below.

Table of Large Speculator Levels & Weekly Changes:

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

The Euro large speculator standing this week was a net position of -56,295 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,965 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,330 net contracts.

British Pound Sterling:

The large British pound sterling speculator level came in at a net position of -58,937 contracts in the data reported this week. This was a weekly lowering of -6,373 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,564 net contracts.

Japanese Yen:

Large Japanese yen speculators totaled a net position of -10,147 contracts in this week’s data. This was a weekly rise of 6,418 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,565 net contracts.

Swiss Franc:

The Swiss franc speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -16,481 contracts in the data through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -997 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,484 net contracts.

Canadian Dollar:

Canadian dollar speculators reached a net position of -14,790 contracts this week. This was a boost of 23,281 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,071 net contracts.

Australian Dollar:

The large speculator positions in Australian dollar futures came in at a net position of -66,320 contracts this week in the data ending Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,457 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -64,863 net contracts.

New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand dollar speculative standing reached a net position of -24,053 contracts this week in the latest COT data. This was a weekly increase of 415 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,468 net contracts.

Mexican Peso:

Mexican peso speculators was a net position of 115,035 contracts this week. This was a weekly decrease of -1,771 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 116,806 net contracts.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here.