Corn Speculators Push Their Bullish Bets Sharply Higher On Drought

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
 

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (73,681 contracts) with Soybeans (25,583 contracts), Wheat (20,463 contracts), Soybean Oil (13,962 contracts), Sugar (9,741 contracts), Lean Hogs (7,704 contracts), Coffee (5,163 contracts) and Soybean Meal (4,314 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Cocoa (-10,597 contracts) with Cotton (-4,552 contracts) and Live Cattle (-6,313 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
 

Corn Speculators push their bullish bets sharply higher on drought

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the renewed bullish appetite of the Corn’s speculator’s positioning. The speculator positioning sharply jumped this week by over +73,681 contracts following a gain of +59,863 contracts last week. The Corn speculative bets have risen in four straight weeks and for six out of the past seven weeks.

The grains markets have been starting to see higher prices coming back over the past month due to a drought in the US Midwest that has been stated as the worst since 2012. Speculators have been reacting to the changes in the weather and have now pushed their overall net standing for Corn back into a bullish position last week after spending the previous six weeks in bearish territory.

Corn’s futures price had been on a rise for three out of the previous four weeks and touched a nine-week high this week above 672.0 but ended up closing the week lower at the 630.6 price level.


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jun-20-2023
OI
OI-Index
Spec-Net
Spec-Index
Com-Net
COM-Index
Smalls-Net
Smalls-Index
WTI Crude 1,846,816 40 166,477 3 -189,918 97 23,441 26
Natural Gas 1,303,558 69 -109,315 28 79,735 71 29,580 50
Corn 1,290,348 13 118,773 39 -58,030 67 -60,743 28
Sugar 967,113 63 261,001 83 -310,762 15 49,761 67
Soybeans 662,469 19 88,532 24 -67,634 73 -20,898 47
Gold 438,037 7 162,975 49 -186,537 52 23,562 39
Wheat 353,865 39 -66,364 20 63,862 80 2,502 82
Heating Oil 310,297 40 16,100 57 -28,496 61 12,396 41
Copper 204,399 46 1,888 32 -4,003 68 2,115 32
Coffee 185,800 7 33,494 62 -33,426 43 -68 12
Silver 152,633 40 20,058 47 -36,210 50 16,152 56
Brent 144,348 17 -47,056 13 45,090 91 1,966 36
Platinum 69,436 70 19,472 61 -25,052 42 5,580 43
Palladium 12,304 87 -6,635 5 7,214 96 -579 7


Strength Scores led by Live Cattle & Cocoa

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Live Cattle (93 percent), Cocoa (89 percent) and Sugar (83 percent) lead the softs markets this week.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (14 percent) and Cotton (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (39.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (28.7 percent)
Sugar (83.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (79.7 percent)
Coffee (61.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (56.5 percent)
Soybeans (23.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (13.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (34.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (26.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (63.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (61.6 percent)
Live Cattle (93.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (100.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (14.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (8.0 percent)
Cotton (13.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (17.2 percent)
Cocoa (88.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (100.0 percent)
Wheat (19.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (5.1 percent)
 

Corn & Soybean Oil top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Corn (25 percent) and Soybean Oil (21 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Wheat (13 percent), Soybeans (10 percent) and Soybean Meal (9 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Sugar (-6 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Coffee (0 percent), Cotton (4 percent) and Lean Hogs (6 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (25.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (15.0 percent)
Sugar (-5.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-5.7 percent)
Coffee (-0.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-8.5 percent)
Soybeans (9.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-4.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (21.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (19.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (8.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (7.6 percent)
Live Cattle (8.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (8.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (6.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-5.5 percent)
Cotton (4.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (13.7 percent)
Cocoa (5.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (21.0 percent)
Wheat (13.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (2.4 percent)


Individual Soft Commodities Markets:
 

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT Chart

The CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 118,773 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 73,681 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,092 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent.
 

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.5 48.3 9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.3 52.8 14.1
– Net Position: 118,773 -58,030 -60,743
– Gross Longs: 342,125 623,477 121,205
– Gross Shorts: 223,352 681,507 181,948
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.9 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.2 66.6 27.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 25.2 -24.1 -22.0


SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT Chart

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 261,001 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,741 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 251,260 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent.
 

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.4 40.9 9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.4 73.0 4.5
– Net Position: 261,001 -310,762 49,761
– Gross Longs: 342,320 395,116 93,065
– Gross Shorts: 81,319 705,878 43,304
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.2 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 83.2 14.8 67.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.5 6.3 -6.6

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT Chart

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 33,494 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,163 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,331 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent.
 

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.8 41.3 3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.8 59.3 3.8
– Net Position: 33,494 -33,426 -68
– Gross Longs: 51,676 76,767 7,058
– Gross Shorts: 18,182 110,193 7,126
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.8 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 61.8 42.6 11.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.0 1.1 -12.4


SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT Chart

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 88,532 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 25,583 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,949 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent.
 

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.4 53.3 6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.1 63.5 10.0
– Net Position: 88,532 -67,634 -20,898
– Gross Longs: 161,793 353,062 45,676
– Gross Shorts: 73,261 420,696 66,574
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 23.9 73.4 46.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.5 -10.1 10.1


SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT Chart

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 28,127 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 13,962 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,165 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent.
 

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 15.0 59.2 5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.5 65.1 5.3
– Net Position: 28,127 -30,138 2,011
– Gross Longs: 76,705 301,792 29,161
– Gross Shorts: 48,578 331,930 27,150
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.6 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 34.4 67.0 21.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 21.1 -20.3 10.7


SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT Chart

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 107,750 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,314 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 103,436 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent.
 

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.7 38.6 9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.5 62.7 6.3
– Net Position: 107,750 -122,189 14,439
– Gross Longs: 130,518 195,986 46,491
– Gross Shorts: 22,768 318,175 32,052
– Long to Short Ratio: 5.7 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 63.9 38.8 20.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.7 -9.4 5.2


LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT Chart

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 105,936 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,313 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 112,249 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent.
 

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 46.1 27.5 8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.7 55.3 12.1
– Net Position: 105,936 -94,062 -11,874
– Gross Longs: 155,744 92,892 29,165
– Gross Shorts: 49,808 186,954 41,039
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.1 to 1 0.5 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 93.2 7.7 23.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.7 -4.9 -22.3


LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT Chart

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -18,727 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,704 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,431 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent.
 

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.4 40.3 9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 39.1 29.5 10.2
– Net Position: -18,727 20,759 -2,032
– Gross Longs: 56,562 77,522 17,534
– Gross Shorts: 75,289 56,763 19,566
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.4 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 14.3 88.9 74.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.0 -2.7 -19.6


COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT Chart

The COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 6,658 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,552 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,210 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent.
 

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.8 51.0 7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.9 56.2 6.5
– Net Position: 6,658 -8,868 2,210
– Gross Longs: 52,445 86,869 13,339
– Gross Shorts: 45,787 95,737 11,129
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 13.7 84.3 29.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.1 -5.1 12.4


COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT Chart

The COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 67,342 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -10,597 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 77,939 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent.
 

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 44.7 27.9 4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.9 49.0 3.0
– Net Position: 67,342 -71,968 4,626
– Gross Longs: 152,239 95,151 14,724
– Gross Shorts: 84,897 167,119 10,098
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 88.8 10.8 42.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.6 -5.4 -1.5


WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT Chart

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -66,364 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 20,463 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -86,827 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent.
 

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.7 38.6 10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.5 20.5 9.3
– Net Position: -66,364 63,862 2,502
– Gross Longs: 98,146 136,416 35,384
– Gross Shorts: 164,510 72,554 32,882
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.9 to 1 1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 19.6 80.0 81.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.1 -13.4 -5.7

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.


More By This Author:

Speculator Extremes: Live Cattle, Cocoa, Lean Hogs, Wheat & Brent Top Bull/Bear Leaders
Wheat Speculators Continue To Raise Bearish Bets To 279-Week High
Copper Speculators Added To Their Bearish Positions For 167-Week Low

Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment.Due to the level of risk and market volatility, ...

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