China Upside Surprise
Q2 GDP and June industrial production above consensus. Retail sales slightly below.
Figure 1: Real GDP, 1992Q1=1 (black), Bloomberg consensus of 7/16 (red triangle), IMF WEO April 2023 (light blue triangle). Source: OECD, IMF WEO, Bloomberg.
Figure 2: Chinese industrial production ex-construction (black), Bloomberg consensus of 7/16 (red triangle). ECRI defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded blue. Source: OECD, Bloomberg, ECRI.
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