British Chaos

Back in Blighty just in time to avoid total London chaos on Wednesday. With a 48-hour politically motivated Tube strike, London has become locked down as Bob Crow, the union leader, takes on Boris Johnson the Mayor. The battle is over about 650 jobs on the Underground which will end with the closing of ticket booths. Nearly half those whose jobs will be ended have accepted compensation or reassignment, and many others are studying their offers. The Tube wants to provide 12-hour service on weekends and otherwise expand its business.

The strike was not called by the affected workers, but by the union leader who will lose members (and their dues). The Docklands Light Railway is operating. The buses, packed upstairs and down, are also rolling. They have different unions. But I am grounded.

It looks like there is a bipartisan congressional consensus in favor of the Keystone XL pipeline if only because it is likely to be safer than hauling black oil and gunk by railway from Canada's oil sands to Gulf ports. We sold out of the chief hauler, Canadian National Railway (CNI) because of rail risks.

More news from The Netherlands, Belgium, and Luxembourg (a Benelux trifecta!), Norway, Britain, Brazil, Hong Kong, Ireland, Scotland, and China. This is a double issue because I was travelling yesterday.

*Important correction and trading alert. We misstated the site of incorporation of l'Occitane en Provence. It is not France (although of course it does have a subsidiary operating in its headquarters country) but Luxembourg. This is excellent because it means we are avoiding the impediment of financial transaction taxes imposed by France, and also the jingoism that led the French version of Yahoo to pretend that Loccitane or Hong Kong 0973 is French. Luxembourg has a long history of being multicultural, as they operate officially in French but in fact speak a version of German among themselves. I bought while under the Channel Tunnel yesterday at HK$ 15.48. That also explains why there is little coverage of the share by brokers which adds to the allure but also to the risk.

*Marine Harvest, now MHG in my brokerage account (no idea how much that conversion cost me!) today reported on 2013 which proved a great catch for the Norwegian breeder and processor of salmon fish farms. Revenues in Q4 hit NOK 6.743 bn, up 55% from 2013 Q4 although the actual number of tonnes of fish harvested barely rose. The reason was that salmon prices rocketed up, producing earnings before taxes (operating profit) of NOK 12.03/kilogram of Norwegian salmon in 2014's last quarter vs NOK 3.62/kg the year before. Canadian salmon generated flat EBIT while Chilean returned to the black. The volumes outside Norway are small. The operating profit figures include marketing, processing, and selling expenses for the fish. This is not the equivalent of net profits which are not yet published.

MNG under its prior ticker symbol of MNHVY ultimately lost money in 2013. The stock has since then had a 1:10 reverse split (which I couldn't insert on my table on the website; the stupid spread sheet only accepts 10:1!) It declared a NOK 1.2 divvie as of Feb. 19 payable Mar 7 on the ADR, up 2% from last year. The depositary for the ADR, Citigroup, has slashed the stock to neutral which is slightly worrying. The stock is part of the empire of John Fredriksen, a Cypriot national living in London who is mainly in the shipping business.

*The battle for Euroland telephone integration is increasingly centered on the Netherlands mainly to avoid French stock transaction taxes. Last week Altice S.A, which controls the Numericable system I used in Paris (replete with viruses!) listed via an euros 1.3 bn IPO of its shares in Amsterdam which promptly soared. It is expected to bid when Vivendi splits off its SFR phone unit. Numericalbe is the Internet company I linked to in Paris which is much faster than the BT line here in London.

*Two of our companies are also active in Holland. Liberty Global is merging with Ziggo now that they have agreed on a price for the Dutch cable firm. And now LBTYA/K is bidding for content here in Britain, reportedly bidding alongside Discovery Communciations for a controlling stake in Formula One, the racing franchise back on the market after a bribery scandal forced the resignation of Bernie Ecclestone as Formula One chief. He had turned down earlier offers. The rumored seller is CVC Capital which only owns 35%; the other, according to The Telegraph (a UK newspaper) would be Lehman Bros estate which holds 12.3 slated to be liquidated by this summer.

For cable companies to own a sports franchise directly would totally change the current process whereby they compete for filming major events in order to lure in viewers and advertisers. So let it not be said that John Malone is an old fogy. He is reinventing cable TV.

*Meanwhile Telefonica is gaining an edge with its plan to buy up KPN's German mobile assets (e-Plus) because KPN's Dutch results were awful, with revenues down 7% for Q4 and 2013 and profits down 14% for the year, with the biggest declines in phone use hit by heavy competition over mobile phones in its homeland. This adds urgency to the TEF plan to merge KPN's e-Plus mobile unit with its own Telefonica Deutschland. German attempts to derail the deal have been stopped by the European Union competition authorities claiming jurisdiction, and now TEF has a stronger case than before as KPN turns desperate. An EU decision is required by May.

There is a nice side to the lousy results. To try to buy KPN, Carlos Slim Helu's America Movile first bought a chunk of the shares and then raised its stake to 30% to block TEF's initial bid. To get around it, TEF raised its bid for the German sub. The Mexican billionaire is not allowed to sell KPN while the authorities dither.

The main point of this battle royal is that the European media space is attracting the largest global players and silly regulators worried about single-country market shares in quadruple pays are outclassed. Let the Titans battle it out without Berlin and Brussels interfering. Quad plays are land and cell phones, TV, and cable Internet.

*GlaxoSmithKline reported on its Q4 in sterling today and the rest comes after the US market closes. The stock lost 10% of its value in the selloff and the consensus is now firmly neutral because of fear that its good '13 results will not repeat. (Marketedge rates GSK sell and one brave broker rates it a buy.)

It reported Q4 sales c1% ahead of consensus at GBP 6.91 bn pounds but profits came in both below the Dow-Jones consensus of 31. p at 30.1p, down 7% year over year. It gained from US $ strength and from the 1.5 bn share buyback program in 2013, but was hurt by a scandal in China and failure of two drugs in its pipeline of trials.

GSK forecast 2% higher sales in 2014 than last year and a 4 to 8% rise in EPS. There are 10 new late stage drugs in trials coming soon. The stock rose 2.5% in late trading here in London after the news.

GSK got US FDA fast track designation for its drug for deadly failure of bone marrow to make blood cells, cytopenia or severe aplastic anemia. Developed with Ligand, the license collector, the drug, eltombopag, marketed as Promacta in the US and Revolade in Europe, can avoid the delays of phase III trials and can be developed for US patients whose bone marrow isn't working have not responded to initial immunosuppressive therapy, the only current treatment.

GSK is down this week in anticipation of a lower profit level because blockbuster Advair (whose patent expired in 2010) is losing its market share to cheaper non-generic drugs for smoker's cough and asthma from rivals. Advair market share fell from 67.2% at the end of Nov. to 61.8% at end Jan. according to a tracking service, Symphony Health reported by Bloomberg.

There are a few reasons not to take this too seriously. First compare Teva which has suddenly taken off because the patent cliff is not as steep as expected. GSK has its own rival drugs for asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease with Breo and Anoro on the market or coming soon. Moreover the delivery mechanism for Advair runs for another 2 years which will also hamper generic competition.

For whatever it is worth, Michael Vodicka of Vodicka Group, a registered investment advisor with a degree in business communications from U. of Kansas wo writes for various newsletters from StreetAuthority today tipped GSK for its 4.8% yield. It has long been in our yield portfolio

*There is no rationality in forecasts. You would think that the rumors that Reckitt Benckiser may bid to bring the Dr. Scholl left foot together with the right would harm the supposed bidder. RBGLY owns global rights to the footcare products brand while Merck owns the US ones. Merck wants to sell to focus on pharma and raise c$10 mn by selling its OTC consumer products arm which also makes hayfever drugs, Coricidine for colds, Coppertone. Analysts at Citi and Sanford Bernstein like the possible purchase so much they are tipping RBGLY. There also are other drug firms getting out of consumer lines and businesses they are distracted from pharma by, like Novartis, NVS. So purchase prices may be lower, but that doesn't mean that the buyer's shares will not go down if there is a bid.

*Galapagos n.v will do 20-wk clinical trials in 49 eastern and western European centers for its novel JAK inhibitor Crohn's disease drug GLPG 0634. JAK is Janase Kinase inhibitor, blocking the protein receptor of tyrosine kinase which causes inflammation. The drug is also being tested in rheumatoid arthritis by GLPYY of Belgium. The $50 mn phase II trial for efficacy and safety is being funded by AbbVie. GLPYY would get milestones as well if the drug for hard-to-treat Crohn's works out. It is also gaining funding for testing a drug against cystic fibrosis.

*With Scotland planning a referendum to exit the United Kingdom, note that Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) is exiting the US by a planned sale of Citizen's Bank. Citizen's is now among the handful of lenders who is refinancing student loans via the private market. This cuts down on what it holds on its books.

*Weibo (from Sina) is falling in user numbers behind WeChat from private-side Tencent according to yesterday's Financial Times 'Lex' column. Both sites feature famous bloggers who have millions of followers but apparently the government crackdown has hit Weibo more; WeChat doesn't do politics, by choice. Neither has been able to monetize chat usage into ads and profits. The numbers are huge as this is China. Both stocks are at huge p/e ratios, with TCTZF at 40x and Sina at a mere 35x. TCFZF.

*Barrick Gold, whose bonds US$ bonds we own, is selling its one-third minority interest in Nevada's Marigold mine to Silver Standard Resources for $86 mn, in a deal likely to be completed by April. The other 2/3 are owned by Goldcorp. ABX says the mine's gold cost $1545/oz, which is obviously not sufficient. As bond owners we don't care about volume as much as margins. Cusip 06849RAF9.

*The final “de novo classification” approval for the Pill Cam colon device of Given Imaging was given by the FDA this morning Irish time, announced by Covidien which agreed to acquire Given late last year. Pill Cam is already approved for detecting polyps which may result in colon cancer in Japan. Patients swallow this tiny camera if their colonoscopy results are incomplete or ambiguous, a much cheaper system (the camera costs $500) than traditional dioagnostic screening. COV is Irish.

*Oops and begorrah! I mistook the latest buyer of Paddy Power plc shares for a brokerage with the same name. In fact EuroPacific Growth Fund is not part of the Peter-Schiff goldbug fund group, but belongs to California powerhouse Capital Research & Mgm. Monday brought its direct stake to 6% of PDYPF, a target of institutional investors. However, our New Ireland Fund (IRL) continues to drop its stake in politically-incorrect Paddy, a bookie operating betting shops and on the Internet where it is legal, like here in Britain.

*After pondering the matter with possible writers who were asked to argue in favor of Total, the French oil company, because it is active in UK shale development, I decided against TOT, among other reasons because it cannot do shale drilling in its French homeland and therefore will not have an edge as a major player. There are dozens of tiny companies now in the shale development business here in Britain, mostly in the lagging industrial north where there can be a nice revival of energy output and jobs as a result. TOT's UK partner, Egdon Resources, listed as EDR on London's alternative investment market, owns 60% of the farmed in resources, half of which will go to Total in Dec 2015 if drilling is completed. Cantor Fitzgerald egged on Egdon with a buy and a 32 pence target price vs a current price below 29.

*After a loss-making quarter and year for BG plc (BRGGY, which we owned before the Arab Spring because of its Nile Delta wells, now shut in), I am tempted to go back in at a much lower price. But I need to talk to some Texans about it and Egdon, back in the US next week.

*Thanks to all the readers who supported me with sympathy and trucs over the sudden opening on my personal behalf of a bank account I didn't authorize in France. This was done by a company to eliminate stock no longer tradable which I had been given way back when I used to live in Paris for helping a start-up pre-Internet IT firm with its English prospectus when it went public. It was later acquired and delisted.

The account creation was an error, duplicating the December 2013 dispatch of the stock proceeds to my US corporate bank account in time to avoid FATCA reporting. I expect there were horrendous fees because there was foreign exchange involved, but I am not bothering JP Morgan Chase for details until I am back next week.

None

How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.