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• AUD/USD trades near the 0.6240 area in Thursday’s US session, extending gains amid renewed USD pressure.
• Tariff escalation with China and conflicting Fed commentary stoke fears of slower growth and persistent inflation.
• Despite Thursday’s recovery, AUD/USD remains technically bearish with the upside capped by key moving averages.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended its advance on Thursday, climbing toward the 0.6240 zone during the American session. The pair built on recent strength as the US Dollar Index (DXY) slid further toward multi-month lows near the 101 area. This move came after markets digested the White House’s confirmation of a steep 145% tariff on Chinese goods, combined with a cautious Federal Reserve (Fed) tone. 

Despite the Greenback’s decline, the technical backdrop for AUD/USD remains tilted to the downside, with several key indicators continuing to flash bearish signals, even as the pair attempts to recover lost ground.

Daily digest market movers: Aussie up as US Dollar slips on Fed flags inflation risks, trade war
 

• The US Dollar (USD) extended its decline on Thursday, pressured by escalating trade tensions and softer inflation data. The DXY fell near the 101.00 handle as investors digested the latest tariff developments and cautious Fed rhetoric.
• President Trump’s 145% tariff on Chinese imports remains in effect, despite a temporary pause on some measures. Fed officials, including Goolsbee, Logan, and Schmid, warned that the tariff-induced price pressures could hurt consumer sentiment, hinder employment growth, and complicate monetary policy decisions.
• US initial jobless claims ticked slightly higher, reinforcing labor market cooling concerns. Meanwhile, the March CPI report revealed a sharp deceleration in both core and headline inflation, easing to multi-year lows.
• Equity markets gave back part of Wednesday’s gains, with the Dow retreating below 40,000 as sentiment turned more cautious. Meanwhile, Gold surged to fresh all-time highs and WTI crude reversed mid-week gains amid demand concerns.
• The Australian Dollar gained ground against the weakening US Dollar, even as the macro outlook for Australia remains fragile due to its exposure to Chinese demand, which is being dampened by tit-for-tat tariffs.

Technical analysis
 

Despite Thursday’s upward momentum, AUD/USD continues to face a technically bearish structure, with key resistance levels limiting further upside. The pair moved higher to trade in the upper half of the recent range, but its positioning remains vulnerable.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator continues to print red bars, signaling lingering downside pressure. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 48, suggesting neutral momentum with a slight bearish tilt. Both the Stochastic %K (at 37.57) and Commodity Channel Index (at -51.65) also display neutral tones, offering no clear directional bias.

The bearish sentiment is reinforced by a confluence of moving averages leaning against buyers. The 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages all slope downward, sitting above current price action and capping gains. The 30-day EMA and SMA—hovering around 0.6230–0.6250—also suggest further resistance ahead.

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