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Assume no revision to GDP prospects from the imports data, as Goldman Sachs did. What is the path of GDP growth, and the level of GDP?

I adjusted the GDPNow growth rates for Q1:

Figure 1: GDPNow nowcasts for 2025Q1 (red), Alternative GDPNow holding import effect of 2/28 to none (blue), both in q/q AR, %. Source: Atlanta Fed and author’s calculations.

While the implied growth rate for Q1 is positive (0.45% q/q AR), it’s barely so.

Figure 2: GDP as reported 2nd release (bold black), February median SPF (light blue line), NY Fed (2/28) (blue square), GS (3/3) (green inverted triangle), GDPNow (3/3) (red triangle), and GDPNow adjusted to omit import effect of 2/28 (pink square), all in bn.Ch.2017$, SAAR. Source: BEA 2nd release, NY Fed, Atlanta Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Goldman Sachs, and author’s calculations.

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